Former FBI special agent and counterterrorism specialist, Ali Soufan, discusses the Taliban's global plans to undermine the West's Roman Empire. Topics include the impact of the Taliban's victory on global extremists, consequences of mismanaged negotiations and military asset removal, speculation on the Taliban's future actions and implications, and potential responses to the current situation.
The Taliban aims to undermine the West's power and influence, resembling the Roman Empire.
The Taliban's victory in Afghanistan signifies a shift in world order, potentially creating a base for foreign jihadis.
Deep dives
Reactions to Taliban's Victory
The Taliban's lightning victory in Afghanistan is being celebrated by radical extremist organizations such as al-Qaeda, Hezbollah, Hamas, and other Sunni extremist groups in the region. They interpret the Taliban's takeover as a lesson that America will ultimately leave and Islam will prevail. This narrative has been perpetuated by Iran, Iraqi groups like Hashd al-Shaabi, and even the Taliban itself. The catastrophe unfolding in Afghanistan has been in the making for 20 years, stemming from the decision to shift assets to prepare for the Iraq war before finishing the job in Afghanistan.
Taliban's Future Steps
The Taliban is expected to learn from past mistakes and be more politically sophisticated and nuanced. They have been engaging with regional powers like China and Iran, indicating a stronger understanding of geopolitical gains. It is likely that the Taliban will follow the Iranian model of absorbing the state from within rather than destroying institutions. They may allow certain women's organizations and humanitarian groups to operate, but their main focus will be on maintaining political legitimacy, strengthening their regional presence, and ensuring that Al-Qaeda operates under their constraints without destabilizing their vision.
Implications for Regional Stability
The Taliban's victory in Afghanistan signals a significant shift in the world order and has broader implications beyond Kabul. It aligns with the Al-Qaeda strategy of the management of savagery, aiming to weaken the international and regional order by creating vacuums and filling them with jihadi groups. With Al-Qaeda and Taliban's symbiotic relationship, Afghanistan may become a base for foreign jihadis, similar to the pre-9/11 era. The absence of Western presence and the rise of extremist groups like Al-Qaeda and Iran in various regions, including Libya, Yemen, and Syria, indicates a power shift that threatens regional stability.