The Compound and Friends Nick and Jessica’s 3 Big Lessons From 2025, Sam Altman Orders a Code Red at OpenAI, Adam Parker on Broken Compounders, the Case for Adobe
118 snips
Dec 3, 2025 
Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe, co-founders of DataTrek Research, dive into the 2025 market dynamics, emphasizing the importance of contextualizing equity valuations amid unexpected trade shocks. They discuss the trend of policymakers prioritizing growth and the implications for corporate strategies. Adam Parker then unveils his research on 'broken compounders'—stocks that surged and then plummeted—offering insights on their post-break performance. The trio pushes for a cautious approach in a challenging landscape, blending data-driven analysis with strategic foresight.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
2025 Was A Market Masterclass
- 2025 was a market "masterclass" with extreme volatility, policy responses, and a strong finish.
- Systems are self-correcting and markets tend to be "rigged to the upside" because policymakers and participants fix problems over time.
Policymakers Favor Growth Stability
- Policymakers prioritize protecting growth and will err on the side of caution to stabilize the economy.
- That bias explains why markets priced in a December rate cut and rallied into year-end despite uncertainty.
Valuations Need Structural Context
- High market P/E multiples must be viewed with profit margins and structural context, not in isolation.
- Elevated net margins and earnings revisions explain why forward PEs sit near 25-year highs.
