Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart Odds Of A Santa Claus Rally Still Looking Good? | Lance Roberts
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Dec 6, 2025 
Lance Roberts, a savvy portfolio manager and market commentator, joins to discuss the likelihood of a Santa Claus rally on Wall Street. He shares insights on recent jobs data and rising Japanese bond yields, highlighting concerns about China’s real estate struggles. Lance also outlines macro indicators that point to potential lower returns ahead. He emphasizes the importance of risk management and diversifying portfolios, while offering actionable investment advice as the year draws to a close.
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Seasonal Positioning Fuels Year-End Rally
- Markets often follow seasonal and positioning patterns, setting up a likely year-end Santa Claus rally.
- Active managers will chase big winners to match benchmarks, boosting mega-cap stocks into year-end.
Expect Reversion After Multi-Year Gains
- Lance expects 2026 to deliver lower returns and higher volatility compared with recent years.
- He predicts a reversion toward mid-single-digit returns after an abnormal multi-year advance.
Valuations Signal Long-Term Return Bounds
- High valuations predict low long-term forward returns but not timing of corrections.
- Valuations set decade-scale expectations; short-term market moves can still defy logic.