On Investors’ Minds - APAC Edition Market Outlook 2026 - Growth and risks to watch out for in the year ahead
Dec 16, 2025
Raisah Rasid, a Global Market Strategist with J.P. Morgan Asset Management, shares her insights on the economic landscape for 2026. She discusses the potential growth patterns in the U.S. and China, highlighting how AI might influence global markets. Key risks are identified, including consumer spending habits and policy uncertainties in the U.S. Raisah also examines fiscal support in Europe, Japan's expansionary plans, and the importance of exports in Asia. Listen in for a deep dive into the main macro themes that will drive investor strategies in the coming year.
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Two-Speed, Two-Half U.S. Economy
- The US in 2026 will be a year of contrasts: strong first-half consumer support then slower second-half growth.
- AI-driven capex keeps investment robust even as overall GDP moderates to ~1–1.5% later in the year.
Watch Labor To Anticipate Fed Cuts
- Expect the Fed to cut policy rates toward neutral by mid-2026, with a likely 25bp cut in December followed by two more cuts.
- Monitor labour market resilience closely because unexpected employment strength could delay cuts.
Europe's Growth Backed By Fiscal Room
- Europe shows durable momentum supported by fiscal buffers, rising real wages and ECB easing.
- Germany's fiscal expansion is a material upside risk depending on how the funds are deployed.