The Wright Show Why China Won't Invade Taiwan (Connor Echols & Dan Grazier)
Jul 19, 2025
Dan Grazier, a Senior Fellow at the Stimson Center, dives deep into the complexities of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. He analyzes why Taiwan’s geography makes it a challenging target for invaders, likening it to a defender's dream. Grazier argues that China would require nearly 5 million troops to mount a credible attack but also explores alternatives like a blockade. He assesses the 2027 invasion theory and discusses the strategic importance of U.S.-China relations in shaping Taiwan's defense, offering insights on smarter ways to protect the island.
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Taiwan's Tough Terrain for Invaders
- Taiwan's geography makes an amphibious invasion extremely difficult due to limited landing spots and dense urban areas.
- Mountains, cliffs, and rice paddies severely restrict mechanized force movement and staging areas.
China Needs Millions for Taiwan
- A successful invasion would need about 5 million troops to have 3-to-1 odds against Taiwan’s 1.5 million forces.
- China's current military size is far below this threshold, making such an invasion unlikely.
China's Strategy Beyond Invasion
- China uses Taiwan invasion rhetoric to justify military buildup focused on defense, not invasion.
- They aim to deter outside powers and exploit US costly military investments economically.