Could a Russian Revolution End the Ukraine War? || Peter Zeihan
Aug 5, 2024
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In this discussion, geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan delves into the complexities of the Ukraine War and the prospect of a revolution in Russia. He evaluates the political landscape, highlighting the loyalty of key power players to Putin, which dampens the chance of a coup. Zeihan also predicts the eventual collapse of the Russian regime, fueled by growing public discontent and demographic issues. His insights paint a vivid picture of how these factors could reshape the future, sparking a potentially transformative moment.
A coup in Russia is deemed unlikely due to the deep-rooted loyalty among Putin's associates, primarily KGB veterans.
Revolution in Russia hinges on economic turmoil and national identity, with mass discontent yet to reach a critical threshold.
Deep dives
Challenges of a Palace Coup in Russia
The possibility of a palace coup in Russia is considered unlikely due to the intimate network of loyalty among the top political figures, most of whom have long-standing ties to Putin. These individuals, primarily former intelligence officers from the KGB, share similar views and interests, ensuring that any potential successor would likely continue Putin's policies. The only notable figure who might pose a challenge is Igor Setchin, the head of the state oil monopoly, but his unpopularity among his peers further complicates any coup scenario. Thus, the collective loyalty and shared worldview within this small group make a coup highly improbable in the near future.
The Conditions for Revolution in Russia
Revolution in Russia is tied closely to the country's economic conditions and the public's sense of national identity. Historically, significant public uprisings have occurred only when drastic changes threaten both living standards and the fabric of society. Current economic dislocation, coupled with the ongoing military conflict, does not yet meet the threshold for mass discontent strong enough to spark a revolution. However, if Russia experiences a critical military defeat, it could lead to a rapid disintegration of the existing regime, suggesting that while a revolution is likely, the specific conditions for it have not yet been met.
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Analyzing the Unlikeliness of a Russian Coup or Revolution
*This video was recorded in May of 2024. We've all stared at the stars thinking about the different ways the Ukraine War could end, but could a coup or revolution in Russia be the way it goes down? It sounds great, but there's quite a few obstacles in the way.