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The Milk Road Show
Is This the End of Crypto Cycles? When Will the Pain End?
Mar 11, 2025
Felix Jauvin, a macro analyst and director at Blockworks, explores the intricate dynamics shaping the crypto market. He discusses his bearish outlook, suggesting that traditional crypto cycles may be a thing of the past. Felix analyzes macroeconomic factors like inflation narratives and the impact of political figures on market sentiment. He dives into liquidity challenges between the U.S. and China, emphasizing the need for adaptability in investing. Could we be near a market bottom, or is more pain ahead?
41:44
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Quick takeaways
- The podcast highlights a shift in market dynamics where macroeconomic factors are now more critical than traditional four-year crypto cycles.
- Felix Jauvin discusses the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, predicting short-term market corrections alongside a potential recovery around 2026.
Deep dives
Macro Perspective on Market Cycles
Understanding whether the market is in a bull or bear phase is primarily based on macroeconomic factors rather than traditional analyses like on-chain data or sentiment. The discussion emphasizes that relying on established four-year cycles, common in cryptocurrency markets, may no longer be reliable due to changing dynamics like Bitcoin's halving cycles and varying market participants. A shift in the buyer landscape has been noted, where institutional investors are increasingly interested in incrementally investing while retail traders engage in high-leverage trading, amplifying market volatility. This conflicting environment leads to the expectation of potential market stagnation or decline in the near term until a possible recovery around 2026.
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Discover
highlights
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