Economist Rick Nevin discusses his research on lead and crime. They explore the causal relationship, successful predictions, and the potential to reduce crime rate to zero by eliminating lead.
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Quick takeaways
Lead exposure during early childhood has been found to have a significant impact on brain development, lowering IQ and affecting behavior, and the correlation between lead exposure and crime rates with a 23-year time lag suggests a causal relationship.
Reductions in lead exposure have been linked to improvements in educational attainment, high school graduation rates, and decreased unwed birth rates, and the decline in crime rates and arrests among juveniles and young adults correlates strongly with the decline in lead exposure levels.
Deep dives
The Link between Lead Exposure and Crime Rates
Lead exposure during early childhood has been found to have a significant impact on brain development, lowering IQ and affecting behavior. Studies have shown a close correlation between the rise and fall of lead exposure and crime rates, with a 23-year time lag. This pattern is consistent in numerous countries that phased out lead in gasoline, resulting in a decline in crime rates. Lead exposure from sources like paint and gasoline settled as dust, and children crawling on the floor would ingest the lead, leading to adverse effects on their brain. The correlation between lead exposure and brain changes has been supported by MRI studies, revealing reduced gray matter and impaired myelin development. The impact of lead exposure on brain development aligns with the age group associated with peak offending and the shift in peak age of offending over the years. Reductions in lead exposure have also been linked to improvements in educational attainment, high school graduation rates, and decreased unwed birth rates.
Continued Decline in Crime Rates and Incarceration
Crime rates and arrests among juveniles and young adults have been steadily declining, particularly in countries where lead exposure has been reduced. This decline has a strong correlation with the decline in lead exposure levels. Notably, there has been a decline in the murder rate and a shift in the age groups involved in criminal behavior. Older adults, aged 40s and 50s, have seen an increase in arrest rates, primarily due to recidivism among released prisoners. The phase-out of lead in gasoline has contributed to these trends, as countries with higher lead emissions experienced a steeper decline in crime rates. Examining incarceration rates, there has been a substantial decrease in the male incarceration rate for younger age groups, showcasing the impact of lead exposure reduction. However, recidivism rates have led to incarcerated individuals in older age groups, resulting in continued incarceration for those age brackets.
Historical Context of Lead Exposure and Concerns
Lead exposure has been a concern for centuries. In the 1800s, lead poisoning was recognized as a significant occupational hazard, particularly for workers in lead trades, such as painters and typesetters. Early awareness of lead's harmful effects led to efforts to reduce lead levels in various industries. However, as lead was introduced into gasoline, concerns were raised but disregarded due to corporate interests. The widespread use of lead additives in gasoline led to increased atmospheric lead levels, which subsequently correlated with the rise in crime rates and other negative societal trends. The historical data reveals the grave mistake in allowing widespread lead exposure despite prior knowledge of its harmful effects.
Significance and Implications of the Lead Hypothesis
The lead hypothesis, linking lead exposure to crime rates, IQ, educational attainment, and unwed birth rates, has generated significant interest and implications. The hypothesis has provided a predictive framework, aligning the rise and fall of lead exposure with corresponding trends in crime rates across different countries. Studies have also demonstrated impacts on brain development, supported by MRI evidence of reduced gray matter and impaired myelin development. The ongoing decline in crime rates, high school dropout rates, and teenage birth rates further support the hypothesis. However, wider recognition and consensus within the mainstream academic community would be crucial for comprehensive understanding and implementation of effective policies to combat lead exposure and its far-reaching consequences.
This episode features Rick Nevin, an economist who is known for his research suggesting that lead is one of the main causes of crime. Rick and Julia discuss: how do we know the correlation between lead and crime is a sign of a causal relationship? Has the lead-crime theory made any successful predictions? And is it possible that getting rid of lead could reduce the crime rate down to zero?
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