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Rationally Speaking Podcast

Rationally Speaking #224 - Rick Nevin on "The long-term effects of lead on crime"

Jan 7, 2019
01:00:11
Snipd AI
Economist Rick Nevin discusses his research on lead and crime. They explore the causal relationship, successful predictions, and the potential to reduce crime rate to zero by eliminating lead.
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Quick takeaways

  • Lead exposure during early childhood has been found to have a significant impact on brain development, lowering IQ and affecting behavior, and the correlation between lead exposure and crime rates with a 23-year time lag suggests a causal relationship.
  • Reductions in lead exposure have been linked to improvements in educational attainment, high school graduation rates, and decreased unwed birth rates, and the decline in crime rates and arrests among juveniles and young adults correlates strongly with the decline in lead exposure levels.

Deep dives

The Link between Lead Exposure and Crime Rates

Lead exposure during early childhood has been found to have a significant impact on brain development, lowering IQ and affecting behavior. Studies have shown a close correlation between the rise and fall of lead exposure and crime rates, with a 23-year time lag. This pattern is consistent in numerous countries that phased out lead in gasoline, resulting in a decline in crime rates. Lead exposure from sources like paint and gasoline settled as dust, and children crawling on the floor would ingest the lead, leading to adverse effects on their brain. The correlation between lead exposure and brain changes has been supported by MRI studies, revealing reduced gray matter and impaired myelin development. The impact of lead exposure on brain development aligns with the age group associated with peak offending and the shift in peak age of offending over the years. Reductions in lead exposure have also been linked to improvements in educational attainment, high school graduation rates, and decreased unwed birth rates.

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