The Planet Money Thanksgiving feast explores the economic mystery of why turkey prices go down despite high demand. They discuss countercyclical pricing theories, home production's impact on the economy, and seating challenges. They also delve into matching theory for optimal seating arrangements and reveal the secret ingredient in cranberry sauce.
Even though turkey demand is high during the holidays, the price of turkeys actually goes down due to countercyclical pricing, driven by competition among supermarkets.
Home production, which is not included in GDP, represents a significant portion of the economy, and quantifying it provides a more comprehensive understanding of economic activity.
Deep dives
The Mystery of Thanksgiving Turkey Pricing
During the holiday season, the price of turkeys goes down, even though turkey demand is high. While supermarkets pay higher wholesale prices, consumers pay lower prices. This countercyclical pricing phenomenon is observed in other products as well, such as champagne, canned tuna, avocados, ice cream, and soup. One theory suggests that supermarkets use turkeys as loss leaders to attract customers. Another theory suggests that price-sensitive consumers drive down prices. However, a new theory states that the increase in the number of supermarkets selling turkeys during the holidays creates competition, leading to lower prices.
The Value of Home Production in the Economy
Home production, which includes cooking, cleaning, and childcare, is not included in the official measurement of the economy, like GDP. Economists estimate the value of home production by asking people about their activities and trends from time diary surveys. Home production represents a significant portion of the economy, and quantifying it provides a more comprehensive understanding of the economy's state. During the pandemic, home production increased, indicating that GDP alone does not reflect the true economic activity.
Matching Theory and the Optimal Seating Arrangement
Matching theory, a field of economics, helps solve complex matching problems, like seating arrangements. Optimizing for stability rather than overall happiness, economists aim to create stable matches that can't be improved by trading seats. With the help of a computer program, Planet Money created an optimal seating arrangement for their Thanksgiving feast based on preferences collected from their guests. The goal was to achieve stability and fairness, as economists believe that stable matches are more equitable. The seating arrangement was successfully optimized for stability without any potential trades to make guests happier.
Here at Planet Money, Thanksgiving is not just a time to feast on turkey, stuffing, mashed potatoes, green bean casseroles and pie(s). It's also a time to feast on economics. Today, we host a very Planet Money Thanksgiving feast, and solve a few economic questions along the way.
First: a turkey mystery. Around the holidays, demand for turkey at grocery stores goes up by as much as 750%. And when turkey demand is so high, you might think that the price of turkey would also go up. But data shows, the price of whole turkeys actually falls around the holidays; it goes down by around 20%. So what's going on? The answer has to do what might be special about supply and demand around the holidays.
And we look to economics to help solve the perennial Thanksgiving dilemma: Where should each dinner guest sit? Who should sit next to whom?
This episode was hosted by Erika Beras and Jeff Guo. It was produced by James Sneed with an assist from Emma Peaslee and edited by Jess Jiang. It was fact-checked by Sierra Juarez and engineered by Josh Newell.