Episode Summary:
- FedEx Cuts Guidance FDX
- Warns Disney+ Subscriber Growth Slows DIS
Guests:
Jonathan Corpina, Senior Managing Partner at Meridian Equity Partners 33:00
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Unedited Transcript
Coming to you live from downtown Detroit. This has been zingers pre-market prep with your host Joel Kahn. And this is a vowel tile poppy here. Isn't it. And Dennis Dick, I bet the penny, I will buy the stock per pen with everything that you need to start your trading day.
Good morning, everybody happy Wednesday. Question of the day. Where has Dennis? Oh, there's Dennis. He just decides. Good morning, Dennis. Thanks for joining us today to get here. Good morning market. Always kids out the door. Wow. All right. I'm glad you can make it. I'm glad all of you in the chat can make it.
Everyone of you watching on YouTube on Twitter, on Twitter. Welcome to pre-market prep. I'm Spencer there's Joel there's Dennis, all eyes on the fed for now. Two o'clock Eastern time is, is when we're going to get the statement. Two 30 is the press conference. So watching not so much for what the fed does, cause they're not going to do anything but support for what they signal.
And then how convincing is Mr. Powell? We're going to be at two 30, so we're watching. Uh, watching some earnings stocks. Haven't been able to do that for a while, but FedEx, Adobe, StitchFix watching all those docs as they react to their earnings reports. From yesterday, we had general mills this morning as well.
We'll talk Disney on the show today as well. I will take questions from our chat, as we always tried to do. And our guest is Jonathan Corr, peanut senior managing partner at Meridian equity partners. He would, you want a slide from the floor of the 8 35 before I throw it to Joel, some housekeeping items, some upcoming events you need to have on your radar next Tuesday, Tuesday, right?
Yes. Tuesday, one-to-one 30 Joel, one on two, I guess, with Jean and a mystery guest going back and forth on what is it? Y'all tech stocks, tech stocks, stocks, stocks. Okay. And then today, everyone, today is. Eve econ the Benzinga electric vehicle conference all day nine to five. After this show is over. Let me just give you an idea here of the companies or the stocks that are going to be at the conference today.
Here's a list I made a GM X pong lumen, R as genomics re uh, archimoto will be there. Um, so, uh, there was the list of companies, public companies presenting will be after this show right here on YouTube V con or BZ V con.com. And. Okay. It is 8 0 4. Let's get to the charts. Joel, how are we doing this morning?
We're good. We're good. We're up 30 handles 30 and a half handles it, uh, uh, 43 66 75, just a few points off the pre-market high. Uh, there was a little solid after the FedEx number, so we traded down to 21 and a quarter. That was a good 10 steaks below the load from yesterday, uh, inside day. Well, no, I guess now with that trend, it's all about the fed and, uh, we'll see what happens today.
I'm sure we're just going to be a lot of chop and slop. Like it was yesterday. Be between 52, 43 50 and maybe 43 80, but we'll see what direction we get from the fed, uh, crudes up a bucket 71 49, trying to move back up to test the resistance just under 73. Gold's down 5 60 17, 72 60. Uh, That's up a nickel at 2267 Bitcoin sinking towards 1000 or 4,000, but you got three lows in the same area.
Let's see. If you can find support. Here is actually to two grand off its lows. That's good news for delirium traders and, um, Ethereum, that's up just fractionally here trading at 28 97, but I can't believe we did the whole show yesterday, Dennis, and we need to talk about one stock, one stock. What's the ones that we didn't talk about.
Microsoft. It's true. It's true. And he went, oh my gosh. He did you snuck that one in? How the heck did you get that thing under two 90? Joel, you snuck that right in. Yeah, you only owe me like 102 lunches now knocked off trend. It's a trend. That's a first victory over me and so long. Wow. Congratulations.
Thank you. 2 89 52 prints. Yes. Three days after the 3 0 5 bailed out by the overall market. It was the overall market, but man, I was just hoping it was going to hold that 3 0 5. I showed on the, just looking at. I had no idea. I thought like I was looking at 2 95, no idea it got down to two 90. It just ticked it too.
You got so lucky now, you know why it'll go up to like three 20 and be like, you won that back by like a nickel, I think because it's been so long. I think we just start with a clean slate and you owe me one lunch and then we'll take it from there. Well, forget about all the bets lunches. Yes. Yeah, no, no, I will knock one off.
So it's seriously, you probably owed me 10 lunches. So you're down in. A lot of bets in a row, not to mention the state dinners, he did pay one of those steak dinners off where crash. All right. Where's the, where's the leader. Where's I fear this leader. I'm here, I'm here. So do you guys have any thoughts on the federal?
Should we just move, move past that, but the market's reaction to the fed, we know what's going to be, it's just going to be a matter of it's the fed, you know, like if the market starts to show some weakness, he'll he don't kid yourself. When they're going in and talking, there'll be looking what the market's doing even ahead of it.
The fed is not data dependent is market dependent. The market shows too much weakness. They'll talk it back up. They'll talk dovish. The only time they start to get a little bit tough was when the market's at all time highs. So, and honestly it depends what's happens going into the meeting, but we're holding on what, why the overnight rally Joel, because we're significantly off the lows.
If yeah, cause we. Last night around like 39 o'clock we were down significantly. How far are we off the lows now? Oh, just 43 handles 43 handles house that we were down 20. Now we're up 24. Yeah. Yeah. Doing, doing my math from the spa. Yeah, that's fine. You can do wild ranges. Good trading. I mean, again, the trade is the fade trade.
I'm going to continue to say it. If you're buying breakouts or you're selling breakdowns, you were doing it backwards. The fade trade continues to work. We got an absolutely correct yesterday on this show when spy was trading up at 4 37 and 4 38, and the pre-market we were saying, if you're buying now, you're doing it backwards.
I'd be selling the rep. And absolutely it was a rip to be sold. We came way down. We did not quite get to the low from the 20th, but we got close overnight. So now we've bounced that low is protected. Shed new. So you're still within a range though. So I think you're buying depths and selling reps until further notice.
Uh, yeah, like I said, it, you know, um, you have three lower highs, uh, so you need to get above a 95, 75 that break that high for today. It's just kinda, you know, we came off, we broke the 50 day average, you know, so everyone shaking in their boots. Uh, we found a support and it was protected. I mean, that's selling, it took place after the close, uh, that was just like people freaking out on the FedEx numbers.
And that was their seller balances to Dennis. Uh, can you remember? No, I can't remember. So this is when, uh, you know, we were a little bit weak the last hour, and then, you know, just before that five o'clock close, got a little bit nervous, but once again, by the D I mean, we're really stuck in a range here.
Uh, and like I said, it almost an insight inside day yesterday, today. Would that funky law? Maybe not so much, but we'll see. We'll see what up pump pile can do for us. FedEx let's go right there. This was an interesting report. I I'm actually a little bit surprised cause we haven't heard too many companies come and say outright, uh, or blame labor shortages outright for, I mean, we've seen it in like in, in, in, in food services right in McDonald's et cetera.
Uh, but I haven't seen too many companies come out and actually say, yeah, labor shortages are causing us problems. Well, that's what FedEx said yesterday. Their EPS master sales was already there, EPS missed and they cut their guidance. And the reason they cut their guidance that they said was because labor shortages and supply chain problems.
Um, and, and it's weighing on the company. So that's what FedEx said yesterday. That's why they missed. And that's why the stock is down this morning. Important level, I'll go to the level, Joel, and take it away from your back on January 29th, it traded down to 2 30, 4 79. That is the level that it needs to hold because we had a huge run, 2020 going straight up.
You don't want to get below that. So that's the level it needs to hold. It needs to balance bulls still in control in the long-term. As long as that 2 34 holes, but bears have taken hold of this stock. All right. I mean, valuation perspective, the stock is cheap, but you know, we know some of the cheap value stocks just have continued to get cheaper.
So I don't know. I think if you want to try it off that 2 34, 79, you could, but give yourself a things there's like 2 33. I wouldn't want to be in it again. The name of the game though, is by the depth and it's a hell of a doubt. So I'd lean on that level. That's if I was buying the debt, I would lean on that level.
Well, if you also looked at your monthly charts, you would see in January we had a lower 34 79. So, and Joel, listen to me. Totally listened. That's exactly the level. I just pointed out.
It's the exact level I pointed out. He says, well, I'll give you a level of, um, mom and dad that said stop doing bad, sir. Okay. It's okay. He's getting older and he forgot memory. The February low, double, a double bottom on the monthly. If you would've listened 35 32 was your low in February. So I was trying to monthly loans and there was in the year within the daily chart there within a year.
So we can look at it. I, oh, you know what you told me yesterday that I didn't know how to make this a year chart. This daily, I'm going to do this right now. One year. I'm not ever going back more than one year on the daily, only one year. That's all that matters. What have you done for me lately? We don't care.
About 10 years ago or 20 years ago. Back as far as one year ago. And that's it, there's a step dobbing the street has been leaning the right way in this report. Yeah. I mean, they'd been pounding this since it was over 300 couple of down days yesterday. I mean, if you're, you know, and you got a step that you got someone trying to press it down right now.
So I don't know two monthly those in a row. I, if I had a short on I'd be tempted, I'd be out there right now at 2 35 covering not necessarily going along ups. So sympathy traders that have their ups gets hit immediately on it. Um, it's down 2.3% here in the pre-market. Doesn't have a date with 180 because it's not much in there.
Joel, if you look at the dailies and tell 180, does ups have a date with 180? Not today. Eventually, man, I don't know how I lost money on three 10 puts on this thing, but somehow I did or two, 10 pounds hard to lose money.
Um, yeah, you're breaking support here. Uh, I don't know something on the dailies at 180. I mean, I've seen ups just kind of shrug off the FedEx in the, in the past, not all the time. Uh, but uh, both postdocs have gotten hit was this, uh, this must have been off their earnings report. Uh, Where'd you see a 180? I have to go back a little bit farther.
I'm not seeing I'm looking at the break. I know you don't go out over a year. Now. You just said, say, I have to go for, actually, don't have to go for that. I'm just saying, where are we broke out from? We had the resistance back, like October, November 1 78, 1 79, my Harland pine bull. Uh, just, uh, I'm I'm doing the Harland pie and just looking at the chair quickly and seeing what level jumps out at me.
And then you had the breakout through 180 back in April. We went straight up quickly. I don't know what happened. Those three, four days we went for like 200 or 180 to like two 20. It seemed like in a week, maybe it's a month because a monthly candles. It was, it was a big move. So what goes up quickly through an Erik and go down quickly through an area?
I don't see a hell of a lot in there at 180 180 Harland pine. Like doesn't respond to my emails anymore. So I know we talk about them all the time to, you know, we got so many great things, sell your peanuts while the circus is in town. Look at the chart in the first, second. What's the level that sticks out to you.
When you look out at the daily, you know, all those things we've learned from Harland pine, who is an excellent technician. Doesn't coming on the show anymore. Talk about him so much. I have his number, I guess I can always call him, but I don't want, I don't want to, I don't want to do that anyway. It was a great, it's been like years since we've had Highland, he will be one of our regulars.
I know. I know. All right, call. Heerlen see if he's CFC. If he's around find good Harland pine on the shine. Uh, real fast. I just saw the stat from a CEO of a supply chain company. He said 16% of all ships on the transpacific are resting, waiting for their turn to unload Irish. Then another ship stuck in the.
No, not yet. Why are they resting? Why, why can't they haven't you seen those pictures or the portal? The portal Los Angeles, man. There, there was a traffic jam there. Why? Because the supply chain just screwed up. Are they doing it intentionally? The same is all ridiculous. Now this is all drone pals fault. I hadn't figured out how yet I'm blaming Powell for everything.
All right. Uh, let's actually, it's his fault that the non-stop printing press has caused lots of trouble for all of us, especially me building a house. So I, I was kidding, but you're not, I'm not actually, it's like, let's talk Adobe here. The stock is one of the best performing stocks out there to an absolute monster.
And their quarter was really good to their, their earnings per share was above estimates. Their sales was above estimates. Their Q4 guidance was above estimates. Everything they said was good. It's just how much how it can stay this grade forever. Right. It's already been a monster stock and absolute beast.
Um, I, I think the reaction here is just, you know, the move was. Kramer said he'd be buying the DEP. I think I'm with Kramer on this and I'm often against creamer, but I think I'm actually with him on this too. I don't know where what's the overnight low Joel. Uh, the initial spike down. It was the after hours, low was, uh, 6, 16 0 9.
And we've held that, which is like, you know, like you have like a FedEx, which is exact opposite. After hours actions continue to lead, continue to lead, continue to leak. We had the initial washout and we've held that low on Adobe. It's a love to darling. I don't know if anything changes long-term because of this report.
I think it was just over bought crowded trade and you know, some of it's coming off a little wash out low. I'm not probably going to buy the Adobe, but if I'm looking at it, I kind of want. I think I would wait for a test of last month, low 6,593. We've called this, this far 6, 13, 12 93 was your low in August.
So I think, I mean, this fire this fast it's, it's come down off the all-time high, but, uh, I mean, if you're going to buy it at 6 26 19, that's where I think your risk is down to a theater stock. You know, I could pound at, after that, the next daily low as well, under 600, but I just keep an eye. We'll just keep things on a monthly perspective.
And, uh, I'd be, I'd be more inclined to wait for that 6, 12 93, 6, 13 area on the app side, who knows where this thing's going to go on a pop that, that bottom right chart is something fierce. And this thing is just, and it's just been a monster and continues to be a monster. It's hard to bet against Disney.
So, um, I'm sorry, Adobe. I was looking at Disney on my chart and it's hard to bet against Adobe because it has been going straight up. And I also looked at Disney on the schedule here. We're going to talk to you in a second. Yeah, it's been just, you know, if you've been selling this thing, when it falls six, 7%, you've been absolutely doing it backwards.
So I'm not going to say it's the trend is going to change. Uh, what about the, uh, downtrend? That is a stock that's up today, but in a downtrend long-term is stitch fix, um, popping on their report, actually surprising profitability that we're not expected to make money on an EPS basis. Last quarter and a day, their EPS came in at 19 cents for an estimate of a 13 cent loss revenue of 5 71 verse five $47 million.
They gave Q1 sales guidance. That was, oh, that was good. Uh, and the stock is trading higher, but look at the top right chart and the bottom right chart. The stock is massively oversold though. So, I mean, it was $113 back in January when everything was awesome and every stock and everybody's portfolio, it was green.
And now obviously different case. I mean, the stock is now down, basically 70% from. So massively oversold expectations were in the gutter. It was a good quarter. Um, that being sad, there was bag holders everywhere. So does it just have an easy run back to 50? I don't think so because there's just so many people who are stuck long, this stock, it's hard to get out of the gutter when you're this much in the gutter, but it was a good quarter.
Um, I think that the stock should be trading higher. I kind of feel like there's no edge. I kind of feel like it's kind of where it should be
differing opinion. And that's why, well, it's just because it's such a wild child. I mean, I've seen it have some really big days. So, uh, first things first, you know, you got the after hours high and narrate it 42. 42 47. And then I'm just looking at this area here. You had like three, four highs, right? Like 42, 15 and a half to 42 and a half to 43.
I just don't know if we're going to get there now, you know, you're three bucks off that level, so you want to see it rally off the open. You just want to see it come up, you know, get over it. If you're really looking for that big runner day, I think the dish should be taken out the pre-market high pretty early in the session.
So that's how I made the fact that we're three bucks off the high. It makes me feel like there's, Salars, uh, that 42 to 43 handle. I think they, if in fact that you get up there, things will really through. Uh, let's go to, let's go away from there. And there was, we had one this morning, general mills. I don't know if we really care about we do, because what did they say about inflation?
You know, this is these food good indicator for, you know, why what's happening and inflation land, because we know the mergers that have been pressed at Campbell soup. How did they get, did they, do you think general mills would be similar, but stocks trading higher? So I'm assuming they didn't say anything about inflation or they didn't say anything.
Now it came in above estimates on the top and the bottom line. Let me do a quick, a word, a control F. For the word. It does say the supply chain environment, rains, dynamic and challenging the three mentions of the word inflation, uh, uh, in the, in the, in the report. Uh, yeah, I'm in the, of course they talked about it.
Didn't they just come out of a strike. Oh no, that was mandolins. Those monopolies. Um, anyway, general mills. I look at the stock. It's not a super active stock on the Chromebook, but, um, we're in an inflationary environment where some of these companies are struggling to pass some of the input costs through.
Um, it's a nice pop here today for general mills. I don't want to own any of these stocks. I don't want to own any of them, no food stocks from me, because I think these are stocks that will struggle in this environment. One and the only reason maybe that they start, if you know, sometimes they're defensive.
So if you start to really get a market, sell off, sometimes these stocks will hold up better. But, uh, you know, you're, you're coming in these mainly for the dividend. And you know, if inflation's running at five, 6% a year and you're getting a 3.4, you'll lose it. So I'm not interested in general mills, not at all at this point.
What an interesting area here and looking at the dailies, the upper right chart for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 hides in a row it's called 59 and a quarter. You're trading above that right now. So if we hold 59 to quarter, yep. Let's go up and test the pre-market high, which is just under 60. You got a daily high coming in, in the 60 handling, 60, 20, so whole 59 to quarter still like under the ups.
Take out 16, a quarter, you got real estate, openness 61. If you're bearish and your faithfulness, and you're looking for a gap fill top of yesterday's range, not that far away at 58 48. See if those 59 and a quarter sellers are still there and maybe looking to get a little premium with the stock trading higher to Disney here.
Uh, Bob J Peck, the CEO was speaking at the, uh, the Goldman Sachs, uh, community community, community Copia, I think is what it's called, uh, conference yesterday. Uh, and he did basically what Comcast did is he tried to lower the, what were the bar reset expectations, uh, with regards to their subscriber growth?
Uh, I'll give you plus, so what we actually said yesterday is expect low single digit million. New subscribers, low single digit million. That that could mean anywhere from one to 5 million new subs on Disney plus. Um, for, for the current quarter, um, talked about how the Delta variant has sort of weighed on things, uh, caused some production delays and just to put that Disney plus number in perspective.
So low single digit millions, uh, last quarter, uh, Disney plus gained around like it was a 12 and a half million new subscribers, new Disney plus subscribers last quarter. So he's saying from 12 and a half million new subs to anywhere from one to 5 million new subs. Um, but, uh, using applies. So just lowering the bar a little bit, uh, same thing that Comcast did similar to everyone is doing, frankly, is trying to lower the bar.
Now that things are reopened. It's a heavy camp. And what do I mean by that? It's a candle that is so large in such a quick, violent move that it makes you think. Okay. Yeah. I can bounce off the support, which it absolutely did. There's huge support from 1 66 to 1 68, but when you hit it support so hard, you bounce a little bit, you crack support.
Pretty good. So I would say if you're coming in this, as long as it doesn't break through the 1 69 0 3 low, it starts to break through that. Then he got problems too. Disney is a reopening stock. Again, it's going to be dependent on COVID. I know people tell me the parks are full, but if COVID continues to spread, the parks might not be as full in the future.
So, um, that's the one concern, um, we know 40% of their revenue, but the Disney plus has always been their wild carrot. And that's what keeps the stock up. So when you all of a sudden say subscriber growth is potentially going to slow just to try to taper expectations. Um, it's going to turn off some investors.
So not surprising that it gets hammered yesterday. I think the move was justified and I'm actually concerned that that support might not hold but support as for Intel it's broken. It's still there at 1 69. It it's a little bit, uh, we talked about the Spencer when they had earnings and we were always a little worried about that.
The subscriber growth, as you could see on a monthly charge, Dennis nailed the area 1 67 30. So that 1 69 0 3, if you're, you know, if you using leaning on that, you get taken out by that 1 67 area. Just how like a rocket spin in a trading range too. And it was just at the top of the trading range, just, uh, what, uh, two weeks ago.
So, boom. I look at a distance feeling kind of happy. We'll see if this 1 67 holds. Yeah, it does. And you know what, it's just, there's just so many, you know, Comcast does the, did this and now doozies doing this. It's just, you know, in Google is coming with you too. It just seems like it's just, it's all spreading out and there's just gonna be, everyone's gonna lose subscriber growth and.
But everyone's gambled. Look, I don't know when 18 T's area to get a piece of the pie, I guess I'll have to wait till the cows come home on that fight. You know, it just seems like it's just so you know, it's like all spread out. The concentration is not going to be in like your big company on the monthly chart.
It's hanging in there and stuff, folks, but under 1 67 and you got, you got some et cetera, Disney plus has a serious content issue because I and my kids will still go on there. Cause I watch the same movies, the kids movies again. But I go on there and flip on. I was like, there's nothing new on. I'm like, this is just wasting my time.
There's nothing new. So they come out with a, you know, of two, three new shows, Netflix coming out 30, 40, 50 hours a month. They have a serious, serious content issue, Disney plus, and they want to be Netflix. They better start pumping out some content faster because I will tell you at night, you know, my kids go to bed nine o'clock I flip on my Roku and I'm like, do I go to Disney plus or Netflix?
I never go to Disney plus anymore. I don't even think about opening it. Cause I know they got nothing new on there and Netflix, so many good news shows. I mean, I'm watching, you know, and obviously the movies always come on, but you know, we know I was a huge fan of Cobra, Kai. It was a great show. I mean, if you're a karate kid fan, um, you know, but there's just so many good shows, like the documentaries that keep coming up with too.
Um, you know, I was watching one on, you know, just last night on Dr. Dre. I mean, there's so many good documentaries on Netflix all the time. Netflix is on it. Blowing them away and streaming content. They it's not even not it's apples and oranges. So Disney can produce the content, but they better start throwing some money at it.
And then maybe it's, COVID, maybe that's held back, but it's not holding Netflix back. So until Disney can figure that out, they're not going to get this type of premium that they've been getting off. Now. Obviously they get, you know, the parks, that's huge. I've said all along that Disney, you know, if the parks and everything gets popping, it's a great reopening trade.
But Italia Disney plus is not that impressive.
No, I don't need apple TV. what's on apple TV. He means apple TV plus. That's what, that's what he means.
No, it just like warm, like every Emmy award, various dentists. Do you like it? It's all one apple a year. Yeah. I tell you Lisa. And we'll watch that. And I dunno if I laugh more at the content or Lisa laughing at the content, but Jason Sudeikis is in it and insulate. It has a sports theme to it. I like it. I don't know what else they have on.
I have a couple things to say. Number one, Disney park Disney pasta does have good things. You just have to look for it. Number two. Uh, speaking of Netflix, everyone, if you care about such things, Netflix is doing their very first, like big showcase preview event. It's this Saturday it's, it's called. Too dumb.
It's literally named after the sound that Netflix makes when you like open it, like the dumb, right? So it's this Saturday they're going to like basically preview all their upcoming stuff. All the shows, all the movies they got coming to the platform. Uh, that's this Saturday, um, it'll be on, on YouTube. I'm sure it'll be on, on their site.
Um, so third thing I want to say with regard to the Disney plus, remember that when Disney plus launched in 2019, the company said they, they expect within five years to have between 60 and 90 million. They're at 116 already. Now I know, I know there was a pandemic and I know that Porter forward someone that subscriber growth, but the bottom line is Disney plus has been a absolute killer for them.
They it's been better, better. I'm sure then their best case scenario accounts. It's the whole reason. The stock's at $180. It'd be out $130 without NEF, without Disney plus not joking. The stock could be on 120 or $130. You have $50 worth of market value from that, from that. Is it worth that much? Maybe I'm just saying I love the Disney plus product.
When it came out, I loved the Mandalorian. I liked a lot of stuff on there. I'm telling you they have a content issue. There is not enough new content. The content they put out is always good. I never challenged and say that Disney doesn't put out good content, but they're not putting it out fast. Because Netflix is blowing them away on speed.
Maybe there's a lot of crap coming out on Netflix, but there's a lot of good stuff too, but it's when you say a lot of crap, you mean a lot, like it's the, the, the percentage of good to bad on Netflix is, but as long as I can find the good, I mean, you know, and, and people start talking about, have you seen this?
Have you seen that? And you go flip. And a lot of people think Cobra, Kai is crap. I like it cause that karate kid, but you know, it's some tough stuff is obviously, you know, a lot of people aren't gonna watch documentary on Dr. Dre and, you know, but I will like, you know, I liked the rap back in the nineties.
I liked NWA and I liked that. So, you know, I'm watching the history of all that and like, this is awesome. You know, the real documentary where they're interviewing everybody and Jimmy Ivy. And I mean, it's, it's, there's some good stuff on there too. I don't see that coming from last thing. And then we'll move on.
Joel, on Netflix. There's a thing about the mouse at the palace. I don't know if you call it that. Yeah, I have to. And what happened? Uh, marvelous, Mrs. May's out. Is that coming back? That's Amazon and it's coming back eventually. I dunno. It seems like it's just like, we're talking now. We're talking, I'm talking about wall something on apple TV or talk about something on Amazon.
Yeah. I don't watch anything. It's just all spread out, all spread out own channel network. If you pay for more than two streaming services, you pay for more than. That's what I want. That's what I want to know if you pay for like three or more streaming platforms because no, I don't think anyone is actually paying for all of this stuff.
We're all just sharing passwords, right? Or is that just me?
Mitch pays for more than two. I have. Oh, discovery plus Disney plus I have ESPN plus the Hulu, Netflix pays for it all be NBA. I'm a streaming kind of guy. Pre-market prep. Plus of course. Do you watch Disney plus or Netflix more often met money match? Well, I'll be with you. Netflix is for the adult. When you're feeling like a kid, you watched Disney plus w oh yeah.
When I'm with my kids, I flip on Disney plus I don't even go over to Netflix. It's good kid content. It's nice family. But let's like get, you know, some other content on there too. Some cool stuff. So we'll have to get mincing on there. All right. Well, let me, let me do this. Let me call Jonathan Corvina right now.
He's he's at work. He's on, he's on his desk at the, before the nicey. I hope I have his number, right. Let's call him. And, uh, you should be able to hear me call him right now and let's see if it let's see if he answers to ringing Diggy. Oh, Jonathan here. Hey Jonathan core pina, we got you alive. Welcome to pre-market prep.
Good morning. How are you doing great. I'm here with Joel. I'm here with Dennis entrepreneur a while since we spoke, uh, tell us what, what the question I always ask and everyone on the floor is what's the mood down there today? Uh, well, thanks for having me back. I know it's certainly a, it's certainly been a while and, and, uh, it's always good to talk to you guys from the floor as opposed to zipping from my home office.
Uh, so, so good to be here. Um, listen, I think the, the, the mood on the floors is a little bit of confusion, right? I mean, I was talking to one of my colleagues on the desk yesterday at the end of the day, and I said, wow, I think they're really going to sell this market off tomorrow. Uh, clearly some over overnight news.
Um, you know, coming out of coming out of China certainly is helping the market today. I think that wash out that we had, um, on, on Monday was. Pretty pretty strong and quick. Um, but the seems like we're trying to rebound back again, keep in mind we came in yesterday pretty much mirrored what we're looking at right now with the futures up, being what they are.
Um, and very quickly the air came out of the blue and after the opening yesterday. So I I'd still be a little, little skeptical going into today's trading session. We'd like to see if we can maintain these gains throughout a significant portion of the day. But, you know, historically we have seen, uh, the, the market kind of running out of steam as it gets through the trading session.
We've got a big fed meeting coming up here. What, what are the traders on the floor thinking about the fact that. Uh, you know, same old, same old, right? I mean, I think, I think we're kind of get, you know, the, the blueprint of what we've seen before and it's kind of the same script, um, w we're gonna have, you know, the split between, um, you know, we should be keeping rates where they're at and the split between, you know, we should be raising rates.
I think at this point, deep down inside, they're all well aware of what's happening. Globally. And what the, what the effects of shifting rates at this point right now would do, um, the uncertainty that clearly is out there from, from a unknown headlines and, you know, be we continue to talk about, you know, Delta Varian and what that, what that might play and what that might look like in the next few months.
Um, so the fed knows even if, even if the ones that are raising their hands saying that we should raise rates, I think deep down inside, they know now is not the time. They're just kind of setting us up for a, a 20, 22. Um, hike, which would be certainly, um, you know, welcomed and, and I think good timing for us.
We're on the line with Jonathan court, penis, senior managing partner and Meridian equity, equity partners. Uh, Jonathan, I talk to kind of two things. One, a lot of times the markets turn on a, on a quad, which right. And, uh, the last three or four turns have been, you know, higher we've closed on the highs of those sessions and then continued higher.
This one's different that we, we expired. It was, it was, you know, kind of an unwind to the sell side. And then you had a confluence of factors on Monday, you know, with China. Prestos lower. You've got the end of the quarter comment. I, you got the end of the year coming up. You've been up 10 out of 11 months.
Maybe we're not due for a full blown correction or market tanking. Could we just be in one of these grinders environment? You know, what are the institutions they can going into the end of the quarter? They are, they stepping out and buy into me. It kind of feels like, Hey, the taking some chips off the table.
Yeah. You know, I think it's more of, um, portfolio, portfolio management, um, and risk management at this point as we get towards the end of the year. Right? So you look at where we were at the top, right? The S and P was up 20% on the year. And we're talking about, you know, we need to pull back, we need to pull back.
All right. So we got a, we got a, you know, a 4% pullback over a short period of time. Ish, three, 3% pullback over short period of time. I mean, that's healthy for this market. We can't continue to go up. And if you go back into March and if I said to you here, sign on a piece of paper, uh, you know, the market's going to be up 14% this year.
You'd sign that piece of paper and never looked at your portfolio again. So we have to kind of keep things into perspective. The market's going to continue to grind and grind and grind. It will move higher, but this pullback here is just a little bit of an awareness to us. It's a little bit of a wake up call to say, Hey, We, we can't keep moving higher on the unknown uncertain kind of gray headlines that we have in front of us.
And we are going to pull back. The good thing is that we pulled back and they flushed that out real quick. In my opinion, towards the end of the training session on Monday S and P bounced off of 43 0 5, straight up 55 points grinded yesterday, we're continuing to see it move higher today that, you know, that is showing us that yes, the negative headlines can impact our markets, but the market's strong enough to absorb that.
And it's more of like, what have you done for me lately, right? This, this, this, uh, you know, evergreen and a headline, which was majorly impactful, but not new news on Monday. With the overnight development, they've gotten some, you know, some restructuring that's likely going to happen and it's going to buy them some time at this point, right now that's old news at this point, unfortunately, but at the end of the day, that headline will resurface again.
At some point we just can't forget about it. All right. So Jonathan, my question then I guess is like how much of Monday's weakness was ever grand or versus the fact that we just hadn't had a day like that in quite some time. And the market just needed to go down as. Market was looking for an excuse and probably I'll call it a new excuse, right.
For some that headline wasn't new and that's been out there and kind of on the radar screen. Um, but for others, that was a, that was kind of like a, oh boy moment. What's going on here. We start reading these headlines, tying it, you know, similarities to Lehman and debt crisis. And now all of a sudden you get all these, you know, this kind of, um, this snowball effect, I will say Monday, wasn't panic.
Wasn't fear. No, no customer conversations of, oh my God, you know, this is it. This is the turn that we've been waiting for. And we really need to get out of some stuff. It was nowhere, even remotely close to that. And I think that kind of that mentality solidified itself at the end of the day at three o'clock when it, all of a sudden it really balanced off those lows, it's going to be interesting to see just where we go now.
Right. As I said, Today's mirroring yesterday, Dow futures up 200 S and P is up 20. And then immediately after we opened the air came out of it. We're going to really need to see we'll know in the first 10 minutes of the day today, if we're going to be able to hold this, that brings up a good point. So, Jonathan, I have a question just on a day, like Monday, obviously you, we are all looking at the charts.
We're all seeing what the market is doing, but you have an advantage of not being in a room by yourself. You're on a floor with other traders and you're talking to client, everyone's talking to their clients and everyone. Yep. Are you all like you're, you're accounting for the charts on one hand, but are you also talking to each other about just how it feels?
Cause you said it didn't feel, you said it didn't feel like bad on Monday, even though we were going down, it didn't, it didn't feel like a climate event. So does that mean. Yeah, it definitely factors in, right. So just, you know, kind of keep in mind, we're in this room and we have our trading desk here on the floor.
We've got 13 people on our desk here at Meridian and we're talking, but you can also hear just the room. You can hear the sound of the room. You can hear the, you know, the phonics of, of what's going on in other spots. And sometimes you certainly can hear, um, the volume raising in the room. And at that point you kind of go and have conversations.
Hey, what's going on? What do you guys see? And what do you w what do you miss? What am I missing that you guys are seeing right now? And you have those conversations on Monday, you still have those conversations, but the conversations were like, was, it was more. I'm not really feeling this panic or are you feeling it?
Are you seeing it? What are your clients saying? We have these conversations and it was pretty much across the board. It was, it was calm. It was orderly. I had a few conversations with some market makers. I said, you know, what kind of flow are you guys saying? There wasn't real, um, powerful flow that was occurring there.
It was more of lack of participation. You know, I'll quote it as a summer Monday again, you know, we're still, we're still kind of getting through that, you know, coming out of that, uh, that phase, but it seems very, very orderly. Um, it seems like, it seems like that's the key word, right? What, whenever you hear the word orally, that's what you're referring to is that, oh yeah, just normal, normal, nothing to see here.
Nothing to see here. I mean, you can get done what you want to get done. My fear is when, you know, you're when the market's going straight up and you're a buyer, the market's going straight down your seller and you're looking to buy stock or conversely, you're looking to sell stock and you can't get it done means there's no volume.
There's no liquidity. That's when that's, when it really concerns me. But on, on Monday, it really did not feel like that. Um, but yeah, listen, there's, there's plenty. That's going to occur in front of us that we're, that's on our radar screens. There's plenty out there. That's not on our radar screens. How this market reacts to those unknowns is going to be really the factors that's there.
And once you know, on a fed day today, and historically it's, it's pretty quiet until two. So, um, this market will show us today. If it's strong enough to sustain this kind of quietness between the opening and two o'clock today. Cause we're not going to get any other real major announcements. Uh, just as far as, you know, the rotation in this market just keeps, it seems to keep us afloat.
I don't want, I almost feel like Mr. Court, pina, they give you a big sell order and something, and they give you another buy order. In the other hand, uh, you know, having, that's why we just don't get these, you know, I mean, you had a big flush, but just seems like there's some rotation and I'm just, well, I was asked yesterday about, about Merck and I know you can't talk about it, you know, individual stocks, but I mean just what about like this Merck and this Jane Jay and the Pfizer?
I mean, is there any, you know, any law or what's working against this healthcare sector and do you see that that could be like the next, you know, the next rotation? Maybe we take a little bit out of tack and we go into health. Yeah. I mean, if you look at, you look at healthcare, um, in general, over the last, over the last, uh, you know, month or so down close to 2%.
And when you see tech and the way some of the, you know, some of our, our favorite tech stocks have been trading at those all time highs, as soon as they start to, as soon as they start to pivot a little bit, um, you start to see that rotation. So I wouldn't be surprised if we continue to see that healthcare has been an industry that, that has had pressure on it.
And now we're starting to see some of these names, like you said, the Merck, the Johnny John's turns, I mean, good performance yesterday on a, on a, you know, relatively flat to slightly down day yesterday, healthcare. You know, you know, 40 basis points. So we're starting certainly to see that energy too has come back in favor some pretty, some pretty good moves there over the last month.
Um, you know, significant moves over there in the last month. So that, that's another one that we started to see, you know, some rotation, but definitely I think the, the money coming out of tech at this point, um, it's just this, this timely cyclical rotation that we're saying, um, as we get towards, you know, past the end of the quarter and end towards the end of the year let's we'll, we'll start focusing back again on retail, um, you know, holiday season coming up, brick and mortar versus online, how that all plays out.
That'll be, that'll be interesting to see, um, in a year. You know, somewhat coming out of COVID. Um, are they able to regain the traction that we've seen before in the past? Uh, Jonathan, last one. I'm going to throw you a bit of a curve ball here, but now that everyone's back on the floor and it's mostly back to normal, do you have it?
We, I don't think we've ever asked you for a good floor story. Do you have anything? Any good stories from just since, since everyone's come back. Uh, that's, that's an interesting question. You know, we try to keep things private, but there's always, there's always good food stories. What I will say is that, um, you know, the exchange did a fantastic job from that, you know, that March, uh, 20, 20 closing down for five weeks and reopening, it seems like the exchange has been ahead of the curve in, um, protection and, and COVID response and testing.
And, and it's been really great to get everyone back here and see some faces that we haven't seen some time. And, and I will say, um, you know, when you look at the vaccination levels, you know, in New York state and, and nationally, um, within this building, we're pretty strong. So it's great to see that everyone is complying and, and doing what they're, what they should be doing as far as getting vaccinated and getting back to work.
I have not. I've had not, you know, fortunately I've sat on, um, I've sat on some executive committees here at the exchange, so maybe they've let a few things slip in their minds. What about rent? Not right. You should get written up first. I've never been fine. Jonathan European is senior managing partner Marine and equity partners.
Joining us live today from the floor. All the nicey. Jonathan always applies your thanks a lot, man. Gentlemen, have a great day. All right, bye. All right. Any times where you written up Juul too many Vietnam or actually find, and he was only on the floor for how long, how long were you on the floor? 85 to 90 to seven years.
Firecracker. I never, uh, it was mainly Frita for throwing car. Um, so you were written, so, so how many times find that? It's I don't know. That was 30 years ago. I got one or two or more. Probably a couple of times streets are on cards. What about written out? Um, you know, maybe first, you know, maybe my shirt was on talked to something specific.
Uh, yeah. Well now it's really casual. I really, I don't, I mean, like I never, I never got written up for fighting or anything like that. I never gotten any fish. They didn't last very long because they were very expensive, but there were things that you would think would be a fight, but they're really not a fight.
And then two seconds later, the guys are checking trades with each other. You know, the things don't last long, but okay. Get your fishing pole out and I'll lean us, you know? So here's the thing I want to go to work course. Uh, it's 8 49 w we'll go to workforce now, and then I am gonna dip out of here and get ready for the quarterly again, only cause I'm the MC for the conference.
I gotta be there before it starts. So if we go to workhorse, what's the news here. Update and spoiler alert is not good. They, they have suspended deliveries, uh, further see 1000 vehicles and two they've had to recall. 41, if you close up, they've already delivered. So, yeah, from bliss to piss, that's pretty much what's happened here.
As soon as they didn't get the USBs contract, it has been downhill and nonstop downhill ever since. I mean, this was a great stock in 2020 and an absolute disaster in 2021. It's goes to show you got to get out while the getting's good. Make sure the trend is intact when they break trend and they start going down and then they didn't get that contract.
It's hard to think of a turnaround story for it. So I don't know where the dust settles on this. We were LA we've been long gone. We had a great trade. Obviously Mitch brought us this back in 2020. It went from $3 to $40 a year later. I sold way before that. I never thought I was going to get that high. Um, Seven bucks here.
Am I coming in and buying the dip? No, I know I it's just too much risk. Like, I don't know when they're recalling and now they're, you know, they're suspending. What are they doing? What is the first headline? They're suspending deliveries and recalling the one that sounds horrible. Now I don't want one shot.
They sold 41. 7 0 7. Uh, that was your, uh, your may low. So if you want to take a look at that, you can, that's where they bounce them for a below that you don't want to look below that that was, uh, the next monthly low under the 7 0 7. Believe it or not. Is it 2 45? All right. I'm going to hop off and we're going to bring Mitch on here.
Uh, and I'll see you guys over on the, the next dream, which will redirect this will redirect to Evie con. And so, so let's get Mitch on there. We'll do nine minutes a ticker time. And, uh, everyone's smashed that like, and I'll see you guys over there, guys. Uh, drama. And let's look in, I'm looking wish making new lows.
This is obviously a social media stock that a lot of people talked about on social media. Again, I tried to buy it just recently at well about a month and a half ago when AMC started a blast off, I fought wish might go with it because I'm not the AMC and GME are the same. But, uh, we know when I was talking that say going back, when was that blast?
I'm gonna go back to end of August. No, not even middle of August. When AMC really started lifting GME, I was like, oh, maybe it's social media stocks start to get hot again and wish went up a little bit. And then it just petered out. And obviously it's been drifting down ever since, again, these stocks they're tough because when their stories and we're going to talk about this stuff, um, in, in our, in our, our educational event coming up in October, which, uh, we're going to announce next week.
Um, I'm going to talk about the boom. I'm going to talk about social media stocks with the boom and the. And the aftermath and the aftermath. Spoiler alert is usually not good. And in where you are now in the aftermath, um, storied stock still, you know, five bucks. I mean, I guess that's all I can lose is five bars.
This is speculative capital only stocks making new all-time lows. When a stock is making a new all-time low. I absolutely do not want to own it because stocks I'm making new all time. Lows usually continue to make new all-time lows. So, no, sorry. I can't get on the wish train here. I tried, I got stopped out.
So I got some stocks for us to talk about here. I wanted to come on and bring some fire, you know, how I like to bring it. So let's take a look here. I'm just going to put it on radar. I would take a look at some cannabis stocks. There's been talks recently. Of course, the us house approves the marijuana banking reform as a part of the defense spending bill.
So I think you're going to see a slight pop maybe in these today, especially if we have a green day. So CGC KRS-One, uh, TLR, Y whole all these stocks are, they all look the same and they're all epic disasters. Um, they're all one thing. If you're looking for a pop, like they are oversold. CGC has been cut in half in the last two months and it's supposed to be according to Kramer, the best of breed till Rey.
Same story cut in half in the last three months. Um, ACB and other oral cannabis, not down quite as far, but it's been an epic disaster for a long, long time. All the time high on the stock is $150. It's six bucks. I mean, this is the problem is valuation has now caught up with these growth stories, the growth.
I always say, you know, when a stocks and growth mode and it's hot and the story's hot valuation doesn't matter when the story starts to cool off when growth starts to slow, valuation absolutely matters. And the valuations were just very extreme. And, you know, they've got a long ways to go down to probably be at value stocks.
So can the stories get hot, you know, temporarily again? Sure. You know, can they have a catalyst maybe that Mitch is talking about to maybe get a little relief pop, maybe cause they're way oversold. I mean, CGC is way oversold. So I don't know if I want to short them at this point in time, but it's hard to buy stocks and these kinds of trends, any type of pop.
I think it's met with more stuff. Yeah, all these, I mean, I look at every one of these charts and they look like exactly the same. So, uh, I mean, CGC, uh, found support. I mean, this was the classic, uh, oh, we got to buy this cause Biden's coming in. Right. And you had the raw and everyone loaded up in October, September, October, you know, you even had the run into margin is now you're revisiting this area.
So maybe if it stops going down and just holds a status, 12 that's $13 area was just huge. It was huge in April and may. And then, uh, boom. And also it persisted through September, even in October, you could have bought this thing at eight, under $14. So it's in an area where it's had support for the can, you know, stop going down first and give you an area to Elena.
All right. I'm seeing the chat menu. Plenty of times I was going to get to it, no matter what today. Uh, we're just holding it off here, but the only stock that I feel doesn't even care that the market went down this last week, lucid LCI D hasn't cared. Yeah. It's been a monster. What was the catalyst here, Mitch?
Like, why, why like blasting off is there's obviously a catalyst at Kickstarter. Yeah, so it, I explained it on Monday and Mitch, what we went through is a kind of a bad rating with a $10 price point. Then we hopped up because bank of America came in and gave it a good price point at 25 and then EPA news, when they got that EPA news of their mile rating higher than any other Evie that really gave them matching expectations.
And then you saw the reactions by the. Coming in to all kinds of resistance from 28 to 30. I think if you're in this, this is now over bought. And I think eventually they're going to get a significant pullback here. I'm not saying I don't like to short rocket ships and it's some full rocket ship mode, but if I was long and I always do sell early.
Uh, 29. I mean, we're, we're just trading under 28. Oh, this is interesting because he had yesterday's high at 27 93 in the pre-market, uh, you're bumping up right against that area, 27 90 high. So you want to bus through 28 and then you only got two other highs to challenge. I'm not, I'm not going to look at that ridiculous high, um, over 60, but if a faggot true to that seller 28, uh, boom, 29 0 3 and then boom, 29 81.
The other thing about this. And, you know, I have, this is just total conjection and speculation. I could see some, uh, some, I don't know, anybody's short stocks anymore, but after this kind of run, you know, a dabbler in, uh, you know, in the, almost in the last couple of weeks, I can see some short, I don't know who, who still laughed.
I know said Tron doesn't do it anymore, but this would be the wine. Oh, they don't make any money and the valuation and this, that, and the other thing. So that's the only thing I'd be a little leery about and LCI. There's definitely a theme coming out of the chat today. And it's the social media stocks where they're talked about on Reddit wall street, fats, discord, social media, I'm seeing a lot of stocks, you know, like SN DL for instance, was a huge social media stock where it was pumped on social media.
And you know, what we say is, you know, the stocks that get the left, you know, they get the hype, the story's hot, everybody's talking about it. And then the burst, and now you got a bunch of bag holders stuck in the thing. And, you know, could it get another lift from social media maybe, but a lot of these stocks that are getting really promoted on social media, aren't that good of companies.
So you just gotta be careful that you don't get caught up in these things. And everybody gets caught up in the hype and we all get caught every once in a while. Like, okay, that's a good story. I'm going to buy some of that too. And you know, what, if the story cool. It's not like the stocks just crash the next day.
They just like death by a thousand cuts and they just keep leaking and leaking and leaking, oh, I get a little left, a little hope. And then the leak and leak and leak and leak. And this is not just unique to social media. This has been going on for decades. You know, these, obviously we didn't have social media decades ago, but you know, it was different.
Was the email promotional scams and stuff. And not saying they're all scams, but you know, social media pumps, you know, they'll get on the train, they pump something. You gotta get out on these things while the getting's good, because it seems like when the dust settles, a lot of these stocks just are not very good companies and ended up going right back to where they came from.
All right. That's probably going to do it for us. I'll let Joel get on outta here and get to pre-market prep plus. Yes, we've got a lot of symbols to cover. I'll cover all those crazy. Uh, I ran out of stocks, but, okay. All right. We'll see you guys later. Definitely. Guys go Joel and Joel, he's going to keep coming at it, knocking down some stocks.
I'll let Dennis get on outta here. Like always Dennis. Appreciate everything you do. It's funny, man. All right, guys, that's going to do it for us on pre-market prep coming up next. We got the V conference. Yes, Evie con, we got a lot of companies that are going to be there. Help is had a monster day going to be there today.
Do not miss out. Spencer's is going to be starting up right now. I'm going to get you guys over to there. This will redirect you. Yes. I said it. You will be redirected to the event. You don't get to go anywhere. You don't got to click anything. Stay right here. Check out. The Evie con was Spencer, a lot of companies, GM coming on.
Uh, we got FUV guys check it out. I promise. There's going to be at least one company that is going to be on this event that will eventually make a nice move on up. And that's why I'm going to be watching. I'm going to try to get some insight. You guys do the same. We'll see you guys there. Econ.
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