Bloomberg's Managing Editor for US economic policy Kate Davidson and Bloomberg Opinion columnist Mohamed El-Erian discuss the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2%, the risks of being wrong about it, and who could be most impacted. They explore the challenges in reaching the target, credibility issues during the pandemic, transitory inflation risks, global economic shifts towards protectionism, and strategies to control inflation and restore price stability.
The Fed's 2% inflation target was set to boost economic growth post-global financial crisis.
Critics question the validity of the 2% inflation target due to changing economic dynamics.
Deep dives
Evolution of the 2% Inflation Target
Policymakers settled on a 2% inflation target in the wake of the global financial crisis, aiming to stimulate economic growth. This target emerged from New Zealand's successful adoption of a similar approach in 1990. The Fed later adopted this target in 2012, under Chairman Ben Bernanke's leadership, to enhance transparency and public understanding. The target aimed to anchor inflation expectations and promote price stability and moderate interest rates.
Challenges to the 2% Target
In light of recent economic shifts, critics like Mohammed El-Arian argue that the 2% inflation target may no longer be suitable. Factors such as supply chain disruptions and changing trade dynamics challenge the effectiveness of this target. Critics stress potential risks, including economic output losses and financial system destabilization, particularly impacting low-income individuals. Calls to revisit the 2% target have gained momentum among economists and policymakers.
Debate Over the 2% Target
The push to reconsider the 2% inflation target faces resistance from the Fed, concerned about eroding credibility and unsettling consumer expectations. Key voices like Nobel laureate Paul Krugman and former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard advocate reassessing the target. Critics highlight the importance of aligning the target with current economic realities and warn against potential harm to vulnerable demographics due to persisting high inflation.
For over a decade, America’s central bank has had an inflation target of 2%. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep its main interest rate unchanged in order to try and get inflation to that magic number. But what if the Fed is thinking about inflation all wrong?
On today’s episode, host David Gura talks to Bloomberg’s Managing Editor for US economic policy Kate Davidson about the reasons the Fed introduced an inflation target in the first place, and Bloomberg Opinion columnist Mohamed El-Erian about the risks if the Fed is wrong about this – and who could be hurt the most.