Kris Abdelmessih, a volatility trader and author, talks about topics such as adverse selection, discretionary edge, manager fee alpha, confidence intervals, and life optionality. They also discuss the benefits of living in California, teaching probability and options theory, variance time in trading, understanding trading strategies and game theory, creating a non-profit club, and expressing gratitude.
Alpha is often associated with short-lived opportunities, such as arbitrage situations, which require speed and constant adaptation to capture.
Real estate brokers often provide liquidity by matching buyers and sellers within a standardized framework, where fungible contract sizes are used to facilitate transactions.
The focus is on throughput and maintaining purchasing power, rather than trying to hit home runs in investing for long-term alpha.
Deep dives
The role of real estate brokers
Real estate brokers play a crucial role in facilitating transactions in the real estate market, particularly in complex and idiosyncratic situations. In areas where there is a high degree of variation in properties and locations, brokers provide valuable market knowledge and expertise to both buyers and sellers. They help bridge the emotional gap between parties and facilitate negotiations, ensuring that the best possible outcome is achieved. While the fees charged by brokers may vary, there is a significant dispersion in their abilities, with top-performing brokers providing substantial value to their clients.
The nature of alpha and beta
Alpha and beta are concepts widely used in finance to categorize sources of return in investment portfolios. Beta refers to the risk premium that is inherent in the market, representing the non-diversifiable risk that investors are exposed to. It encompasses the general risk and return characteristics of a particular asset or market segment. On the other hand, alpha refers to returns that are not explained by market movements and can be attributed to the skill or unique insights of a particular investor or strategy. Alpha is often associated with short-lived opportunities, such as arbitrage situations, which require speed and constant adaptation to capture. While beta can be quantified and represented by factors, alpha is more elusive and can be challenging to consistently capture.
The role of liquidity and standardization
Liquidity and standardization are essential factors in trading and markets. Through standardization, markets benefit from better pricing, improved price discovery, and increased liquidity. This, in turn, enables more efficient risk transfer and reduces the need for bespoke trading arrangements. Real estate brokers often provide liquidity by matching buyers and sellers within a standardized framework, where fungible contract sizes are used to facilitate transactions. While technology, such as blockchain, may offer some improvements to matching services, the complexity and uniqueness of real estate transactions may require the involvement of brokers to ensure efficient and successful outcomes.
The limitations of reducing everything to factors
The tendency to reduce all sources of return to factors or premia can be a limited perspective. While factors can explain a significant portion of return variation, there are often idiosyncratic elements that cannot be captured by factors alone. These idiosyncrasies are the realm of alpha, where skilled investors may have insights or approaches that enable them to exploit temporary mispricings or market inefficiencies. However, chasing alpha can be challenging due to the dynamic and constantly changing nature of market opportunities, making it crucial for investors to continually adapt and refine their strategies.
The Paradox of Provable Alpha
The speaker discusses the paradox of provable alpha, stating that everyone wants proof that an investment strategy works, but if a strategy is provable, it often means that only select investors are allowed to participate or the fees are set so high that the alpha is captured by the strategy provider. This leads to the inference that the only place where true alpha exists is in discretionary strategies that cannot be proven.
Reinvesting vs. Trading
The speaker highlights the difference between reinvesting and trading, likening investing to reinvesting. They argue that investing should involve creating a business to capture repeated opportunities for alpha, similar to buying real estate at a discount and repeatedly capturing the edge. The focus is on throughput and maintaining purchasing power, rather than trying to hit home runs. The speaker emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between trading for edge and reinvesting for the long run.
Kris has been actively involved in options trading for 21 years. His background encompasses commencing his journey within the trading pits alongside SIG, establishing his personal market-making team, and overseeing the commodities book for a distinguished volatility manager.
We talk about:
Adverse Selection
Discretionary Edge?
Manager Fee Alpha
Confidence Intervals
Life Optionality and more!
This podcast was recorded at the Edgewood Resort, situated by the serene Lake Tahoe, where a wonderful private event was organized by Collective.
Collective is a curated community investors and entrepreneurs eager for in-person experiences, authentic connections, and idea sharing.
I hope you enjoyed this conversation with Kris as much as I did!
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