In this discussion, John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer & Co., shares his bullish outlook on the S&P, despite lingering policy uncertainties. He elaborates on how tariff rates could impact global markets and the labor market, hinting at a delicate balance between optimism and caution. The conversation reveals how rising interest rate cut speculation is influencing investor sentiment. Additionally, Stoltzfus explores the evolving strategies of investors as they navigate economic pressures while eyeing the resilience within the S&P 500.
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US Economy Slowing Momentum
The US economy is showing signs of slowing, with real consumption spending negative for the first half of the year.
Bond yields react to weaker data by falling, reflecting concerns about a "low hire, low fire" labor market and investment hesitation.
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Tariffs Impact Partially Offset
Tariffs are expected to slow revenue and earnings but not cause a recession.
Companies are benefiting from fiscal policy offsets like tax incentives that boost free cash flow.
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Broad Bull Market and Fed Cuts
Broad participation beyond Big Tech is driving the current bull market rally.
Fed rate cuts expected in September due to softening jobs data may support equity markets.
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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyAugust 7th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Kelsey Berro, Executive Director: Fixed Income at JP Morgan Investment Management, joins to discuss fixed income markets and portfolio positioning as she asses Fed rate cuts and eco fundamentals. Three Fed policymakers voiced concerns about the US labor market Wednesday with remarks that pointed to a potential interest-rate cut in September. Fed San Francisco President Mary Daly said policymakers will probably need to adjust interest rates in “coming months” to prevent a further deterioration in hiring. 2) John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer & Co., discusses his bullish S&P stance and whether it could change amid policy uncertainty. Stocks gained in early trading after the Kremlin confirmed Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump will meet for summit talks, raising hopes of a truce in Russia’s war with Ukraine. 3) Mark Dowding, CIO at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, talks about how tariff rates could weigh on the global economy, risk appetite, and the US labor market. Market sentiment got a boost earlier after President Trump announced that companies producing goods in the US, such as Apple Inc., would be eligible for exemptions from his proposed 100% tariff on chip imports. Increasing speculation on a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut are also supporting optimism in stocks as sweeping new tariffs to reshape global trade officially took hold Thursday. 4) Joe Carson, former Chief Economist at AlllianceBernstein and publisher of The Carson Report, talks about the dismissal of the BLS chief and what it means for broader US economic policy and outlook. 5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a New York Times story on how President Trump is weighing getting involved in NYC Mayors race to try to stop Zohran Mandani and a WSJ report on college kids using Google calendar for all sorts of things.
Bloomberg Surveillance