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China's Four Military Campaigns
- China has four main military campaign options to take Taiwan: missile strikes, blockade, counter-intervention against US forces, and an amphibious assault.
- The amphibious assault is the most complex and debated, but under certain conditions, China could succeed in it.
Conditions for Amphibious Success
- Success in an amphibious assault depends heavily on the US being unprepared or unable to mount defense in time.
- China could accept high costs if it believed victory was attainable, prioritizing winning over losses.
Rapid PLA Modernization Impact
- China's military has made rapid advances since 1996, improving missile and joint operation capabilities drastically.
- Organizational reforms now enable the PLA to conduct coordinated joint operations, marking a turning point in Taiwan military considerations.