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“VDT: a solution to decision theory” by L Rudolf L

Apr 2, 2025

L. Rudolph L, the author behind the innovative VDT decision theory, dives into the complexities of decision-making under uncertainty. He discusses existing theories like Causal and Evidential Decision Theories and contrasts them with VDT's novel approach. The conversation highlights experimental results that prove VDT’s effectiveness. Rudolph emphasizes the importance of cooperation in achieving better outcomes, challenging traditional normative theories that often lead to flawed decisions. Tune in for a mind-bending exploration of rational behavior amidst uncertainty!

08:58

Episode guests

L. Rudolph L

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Episode notes

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

VDT introduces a novel decision-making framework that prioritizes actions based on qualitative evaluations of 'vibes' for better outcomes.

The podcast critiques existing decision theories like CDT and EDT, highlighting their limitations in resolving complex decision-making dilemmas.

Deep dives

Introduction to VDT and Decision Theory Dilemmas

Decision theory addresses how to act rationally amid uncertainty, exemplified by dilemmas such as Newcomb's problem, the smoking lesion, and Parfit's hitchhiker. These decision-making scenarios highlight the limitations of existing theories like causal decision theory (CDT) and evidential decision theory (EDT), which can lead to suboptimal outcomes. For instance, in Newcomb's problem, CDT might suggest taking both boxes, resulting in a substantial loss of potential winnings. Such dilemmas have revealed that a comprehensive decision theory is yet to be formalized, necessitating a new approach to resolve these challenges.

Intro

5min

Exploring Vibe Decision Theory in Decision Making

3min

Cooperation and the Flaws of Normative Decision Theories

1min

Introduction

Decision theory is about how to behave rationally under conditions of uncertainty, especially if this uncertainty involves being acausally blackmailed and/or gaslit by alien superintelligent basilisks.

Decision theory has found numerous practical applications, including proving the existence of God and generating endless LessWrong comments since the beginning of time.

However, despite the apparent simplicity of "just choose the best action", no comprehensive decision theory that resolves all decision theory dilemmas has yet been formalized. This paper at long last resolves this dilemma, by introducing a new decision theory: VDT.

Decision theory problems and existing theories

Some common existing decision theories are:

Causal Decision Theory (CDT): select the action that *causes* the best outcome.
Evidential Decision Theory (EDT): select the action that you would be happiest to learn that you had taken.
Functional Decision Theory (FDT): select the action output by the function such that if you take [...]

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Outline:

(00:53) Decision theory problems and existing theories

(05:37) Defining VDT

(06:34) Experimental results

(07:48) Conclusion

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First published:
April 1st, 2025

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LcjuHNxubQqCry9tT/vdt-a-solution-to-decision-theory

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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