2025: A Year of ‘Heightened & Elevated Uncertainty’ | David Rosenberg

Feb 7, 2025

Renowned economist David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, joins Anthony Scaramucci to discuss pressing economic challenges for 2025. They dive into the potential AI stock bubble, comparing it to the Dot-Com crash, and the impact of Trump's tariffs on trade. Rosenberg warns of a looming U.S. debt crisis and explores its market implications. He also discusses the surging price of gold and questions the relevance of the traditional 60/40 portfolio as smart investors pivot towards alternative assets.

Ask episode

Chapters

Books

Transcript

Episode notes

Intro

00:00 • 4min

Tariffs and North American Economics

04:07 • 7min

Exploring Human Behavior and Political Perspectives

10:44 • 2min

Market Dynamics and Future Outlook

13:14 • 26min

Wrapping Up Financial Insights and Future Engagements

39:00 • 2min

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

Charles Mackay

David J. Schneider

This book, first published in 1841, is an early study of crowd psychology by Charles Mackay. It chronicles numerous instances of mass hysteria and popular delusions, including economic bubbles like the South Sea Bubble and Tulipomania, the Crusades, witch-hunts, and other peculiar follies. Mackay presents these examples to illustrate how easily the masses can be led astray by various delusions and how human folly remains a constant across different times and places. The book is divided into sections such as 'National Delusions,' 'Peculiar Follies,' and 'Philosophical Delusions,' and is known for its engaging and witty narrative style.

Manias, Panics, and Crashes

A History of Financial Crises

Charles P. Kindleberger

Robert Z. Aliber

Robert McCauley

This book, first published in 1978, tracks various financial crises through time, from 'Tulipmania' to the global financial crisis of 2008. It disentangles the narrative of many financial disasters into their component parts and educates readers on how to identify different phases of the financial cycle. The book covers historical financial manias, typical patterns of crisis evolution, and fraudulent behaviors. Later editions, updated by Robert Z. Aliber and Robert McCauley, include new chapters on cryptocurrency, the US as the global lender of last resort, and recent financial bubbles in China and the US housing market. The book is a valuable resource for finance and economic researchers, students, practitioners, and policymakers[2][3][4].

The Little Book of Bitcoin

Anthony Scaramucci

Thinking, Fast and Slow

Daniel Kahneman

In this book, Daniel Kahneman takes readers on a tour of the mind, explaining how the two systems of thought shape our judgments and decisions. System 1 is fast, automatic, and emotional, while System 2 is slower, effortful, and logical. Kahneman discusses the impact of cognitive biases, the difficulties of predicting future happiness, and the effects of overconfidence on corporate strategies. He offers practical insights into how to guard against mental glitches and how to benefit from slow thinking in both personal and business life. The book also explores the distinction between the 'experiencing self' and the 'remembering self' and their roles in our perception of happiness.

Lords of finance

the bankers who broke the world

Liaquat Ahamed

The book examines the roles of central bankers Benjamin Strong Jr., Montagu Norman, Émile Moreau, and Hjalmar Schacht in the lead-up to the Great Depression. It highlights their adherence to the gold standard and the consequences of their decisions, which significantly contributed to the economic catastrophe. The narrative also draws parallels between past and present economic challenges and emphasizes the importance of flexible monetary policies, as advocated by John Maynard Keynes.

The ascent of money

A Financial History of the World

Niall Ferguson

In 'The Ascent of Money', Niall Ferguson explores the human story behind the evolution of finance, from the origins of money in ancient Mesopotamia to the latest financial upheavals. Ferguson argues that finance is the foundation of human progress and reveals financial history as the essential backstory behind all history. The book covers key financial institutions and concepts, such as the invention of banking, the development of bonds and stock markets, and the role of insurance and real estate. It also delves into the impact of financial systems on historical events and the recurring theme that every financial bubble eventually bursts[1][3][4].