FT News Briefing Opec pops US shale’s balloon
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Aug 14, 2025 Recent tax data eases concerns about a potential mass exodus of non-doms from the UK. Meanwhile, UK companies are experiencing a boost due to improving diplomatic relations with China. On the energy front, experts warn that the U.S. shale boom may be coming to a halt, impacted by OPEC's production tactics and falling oil prices. U.S. shale producers are reducing fracking to cut costs, forecasting a decline in production for the first time since the pandemic, posing significant challenges for the industry.
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Non-Dom Exodus Fears Eased
- Initial UK tax data show no mass exodus of non-domiciled residents after proposed reforms.
- That outcome eases fiscal pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves' plan to raise £4bn from non-doms in 2026–27.
OPEC+ Market-Share Strategy
- OPEC+ has shifted from supporting prices to reclaiming market share by adding 2.2m bpd back into the market.
- That move pressures US shale by driving prices toward or below its ~$65/bbl breakeven point.
Breakeven Pressure On US Shale
- US shale generally needs around $65 per barrel to break even, and prices are hovering near that level.
- Producers are cutting rigs and crews to conserve cash, signaling strain on future production.