Russia invasion 'called Putin’s bluff' & New York 'falls' to Moscow
Aug 20, 2024
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Dominic Nicholls, an Associate Editor specializing in Defence, Francis Dearnley, an Assistant Comment Editor, and Svitlana Morenets, a Ukrainian Journalist, discuss Ukraine's significant military movements in Kursk. They analyze the potential implications of a prisoner of war exchange and its political weight for President Zelensky. The conversation also touches on NATO membership criteria amid ongoing conflicts and the intricacies of Western sanctions against Russia. These insights shed light on the evolving dynamics in the Ukrainian war.
Ukrainian forces have effectively encircled approximately 3,000 Russian troops in Kursk, marking a pivotal shift in military strategy.
The political landscape in Ukraine is strained as President Zelensky contends with public demands for the release of detained Azov fighters.
Deep dives
Ukrainian Forces Advance in Kursk
Ukrainian forces are making significant progress in the Kursk region, managing to trap approximately 3,000 Russian troops from an encircled pocket by closing vital river routes. There are reports that Ukraine has successfully targeted and potentially destroyed Russian pontoon bridges, which were critical for Russian supply lines. Additionally, breakthroughs from multiple fronts have allowed Ukrainian troops to marginally advance, indicating a tactical shift aimed at restricting Russian movements in the area. This success underscores a larger strategy to create a buffer zone that stretches Russian resources while enhancing Ukraine’s defensive posture.
Mounting Political Pressure for POW Exchanges
The anticipated prisoner of war exchange has become a central political issue for President Zelensky, particularly after the recent death of an Azov fighter in Russian custody. There is growing unrest among Ukrainians regarding the prolonged detention of nearly 2,000 Azov soldiers captured in Mariupol, with public protests calling for their release. Zelensky's government faces escalating demands to deliver on previous promises regarding the fate of these soldiers, which, if unmet, may lead to further discontent among the populace. This situation highlights the delicate balancing act the government must perform between military policies and maintaining public trust during the conflict.
Strategic Shifts and Future Negotiations
In light of the current military dynamics, there is a noticeable shift in the dialogue around potential negotiations with Russia, particularly with Zelensky advocating for a second peace summit. This strategic pivot comes as Ukrainian forces redefine their military objectives, now considering negotiations as a viable pathway amid battlefield realities, which had previously been dominated by calls for complete territorial recovery. The necessity of showcasing Ukraine's military readiness while simultaneously seeking diplomatic resolutions underscores the nuanced approach Kyiv must take in the ongoing conflict. As the U.S. elections approach, the narrative around these negotiations has the potential to put pressure on both Ukraine and its Western allies regarding military support and diplomatic efforts.
Internal Challenges and Political Landscape in Ukraine
Ukraine's parliament is currently facing challenges regarding political unity and effectiveness as members have been criticized for missing sessions during critical times. The inability to pass essential laws, particularly concerning defense expenditure and taxes, points to a fractious political atmosphere amid ongoing military conflict. Significant reliance on previously pro-Russian factions for voting has raised concerns about the integrity of legislative processes. With no elections on the horizon, the parliament's stagnation is seen as a broader indication of the need for reform and renewed civic engagement to reinforce democratic practices in wartime Ukraine.
Today, we examine the latest from Kursk as Ukrainian forces rush to close the pocket thought to contain thousands of Russian troops. Plus, we hear how Ukraine is preparing an anticipated Prisoner of War exchange, and why the issue of returning Asov fighters is now a political question for President Zelensky. Lastly, we consider Russian advances - including the alleged fall of New York.
Contributors:
Dominic Nicholls (Associate Editor, Defence). @DomNicholls on X.
Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on X.
Svitlana Morenets (Ukrainian Journalist). @SvMorenets on X.
Content Referenced:
Oxford Event: Serhii Plokhy talks to Francis Dearnley (27th August):
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