The New Cold Wars: A Conversation with David Sanger
Oct 1, 2024
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David Sanger, a national security correspondent for The New York Times and author of 'New Cold Wars,' dives deep into the evolving tensions between the U.S., China, and Russia. He expresses concerns about the burgeoning alliance between China and Russia and its implications for global stability. The discussion touches on nuclear threats and espionage, the imbalance in student exchanges, and the strategic significance of the AUKUS pact. Sanger offers insights into the complexities of U.S.-China relations and the looming dangers ahead.
David Sanger warns that rising tensions, particularly regarding nuclear threats, highlight the fragility of international diplomacy among major powers today.
The evolving partnership between China and Russia complicates U.S. foreign policy, creating a more hostile environment with unprecedented geopolitical implications.
Deep dives
The New Cold War Landscape
The discussion highlights that the current geopolitical climate is characterized by complex 'new cold wars' involving major powers like the U.S., China, and Russia. Unlike the previous Cold War, where there was a singular focus on the Soviet Union, the present scenario includes multi-dimensional conflicts that can escalate beyond mere political standoffs. David Sanger points out that the misjudgments made about the nature of these relationships and the behavior of these nations have led to a precarious situation, particularly in the context of nuclear threats. The emergence of this triad of powers creates an unpredictable landscape that complicates diplomatic strategies and increases the risk of nuclear confrontation.
Nuclear Threats and Diplomacy
A key point of concern is the rising threats of nuclear warfare, particularly as tensions soar between Russia and Ukraine. Sanger recounts a notable incident where President Biden warned that the world was closer to nuclear war than during the Cuban missile crisis, highlighting the chilling unpredictability of current global relations. The patterns of communication between nations, especially concerning nuclear safety, are vital yet strained, as seen when China abruptly withdrew from critical talks. This lack of dialogue over essential safety protocols could potentially lead to significant misunderstandings and catastrophic outcomes.
The China-Russia Alliance
The evolving partnership between China and Russia is presented as a critical geopolitical development, with implications for global stability. Sanger elaborates that while this relationship is not a formal alliance, both nations support each other and share mutual grievances against U.S. policies, potentially culminating in a more hostile global atmosphere. The historical context of animosity between China and Russia contrasts sharply with their current alignment, raising alarms about future conflicts. The unpredictability amplifies the dangers as the U.S. must strategize against two formidable adversaries rather than one.
AUKUS and Regional Stability
The AUKUS alliance, formed between Australia, the UK, and the U.S., serves as a significant counterbalance to rising Chinese influence in the Pacific. Concerns are raised regarding the feasibility of delivering on promises, such as submarine acquisitions, and the potential impacts on U.S.-Australia relations if these commitments fail. Sanger emphasizes that the alliance is not just about military assets; it's about binding nations together in a cohesive network to respond to aggression. The strategic importance of AUKUS extends beyond immediate military considerations, aiming to create a united front should tensions escalate in regions like Taiwan or the South China Sea.
In this bonus episode, Jane Perlez sits down with New York Times national security and White House correspondent David Sanger. In this candid conversation, they talk about his new bestseller: New Cold Wars: China's Rise, Russia's Invasion, and America's Struggle to Defend the West. Plus they discuss Sanger's views on where the US - China relationship is headed, how he worries about the friendship between China and Russia, and a party in New York City where talk turned to the subject of nuclear weapons. This conversation was recorded in August 2024 at a surf club in Sydney, Australia.