The Capitalism and Freedom in the Twenty-First Century Podcast Global Macro Investing And Geoeconomics With Hedge Fund Investor Kyle Bass | Hoover Institution
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Jun 19, 2025 
Kyle Bass, founder of Hayman Capital Management and noted for predicting the 2008 housing crisis, joins Jon Hartley to delve into intriguing financial landscapes. They explore how zoning laws affect housing costs and drive social disparities. Bass analyzes rising tensions between the U.S. and China, shedding light on military strategies and investment risks. He also discusses shifting alliances in the Middle East, the significance of the Abraham Accords, and ultimately champions the U.S. as the foremost innovation hub for future investments.
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Bartender's Story Sparked Crisis Bet
- Kyle Bass discovered the US housing bubble when a Las Vegas bartender revealed she had three homes via easy loans.
- This personal insight fueled his research, leading him to predict the 2008 financial crisis accurately.
Private Debts Shift to Sovereign Risk
- Kyle Bass analyzed sovereign debt crises by tracking private bad assets moving into public balance sheets.
- Countries like Iceland and Greece failed due to banking systems vastly exceeding GDP, unlike the US which recapitalized successfully.
Financial Repression Hurts Demographics
- Financial repression and excessive asset inflation reduce real wages, leading young men to delay marriage and procreation.
- This demographic crisis contributes directly to declining fertility rates in developed countries like Japan and the US.
