Asia Geopolitics RCEP, CPTPP, and the Future of Trade Multilateralism in Asia
Nov 9, 2019
In this discussion, Prashanth Parmaswaran, a D.C.-based expert on geopolitical dynamics, tackles India's withdrawal from RCEP and its implications for Asia-Pacific relations. He sheds light on India's trade isolation and the challenges it faces amid growing global trade tensions. The conversation also explores Vietnam's pivotal role in advocating for free trade, the stark differences between RCEP and CPTPP, and the intricate U.S.-China trade negotiations. Parmaswaran highlights the broader geopolitical landscape and its repercussions on multilateral trade.
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India's RCEP Withdrawal Impact
- India's decision to sit out RCEP is unsurprising but reflects poorly on its regional economic engagement.
- It reinforces India's reputation as difficult to engage on economic issues despite its strategic Act East policy.
India's RCEP Concerns
- India rejects RCEP due to trade deficits, especially with China, and fears of market flooding by cheaper imports.
- Domestic politics and the struggle with structural reforms heavily influence New Delhi's protective stance.
Trade-Offs and Vietnam's Role
- The trade-off between short-term domestic costs and long-term economic benefits shapes big nations' trade choices like India and the U.S.
- Vietnam emerged as a key regional player advancing free trade, seeking economic wins amid security tensions.