Dwarkesh Podcast
2027 Intelligence Explosion: Month-by-Month Model — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo
Apr 3, 2025
Scott Alexander, author of popular blogs on AI and culture, joins Daniel Kokotajlo, director of the AI Futures Project, to explore the AI landscape leading up to 2027. They dive into the concept of an intelligence explosion, discussing potential scenarios and exploring the societal implications of superintelligent AI. The conversation covers the challenges of aligning AI developments with human values, the competitive race in AI technology between the U.S. and China, and the transformative potential of AI in fields like manufacturing and biomedicine.
03:04:26
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Quick takeaways
- The podcast discusses the AI 2027 forecast, outlining step-by-step milestones toward achieving AGI and establishing credibility through past predictions.
- The unpredictability of AI advancements highlights the importance of iterative learning and adaptability in response to significant shifts in trajectory.
Deep dives
Forecasting AI Progress with AI 2027
The discussion centers around the release of AI 2027, a scenario that aims to predict the future trajectory of AI development over the next few years. The scenario addresses skepticism regarding the claims of imminent AGI by illustrating step-by-step milestones from current capabilities to a future where AGI exists. These transitions are crafted to feel earned by providing a narrative that connects existing technologies to potential advancements. The developers strive not only for creative storytelling but also for accuracy, drawing on previous successful predictions to increase credibility.
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