#166 – Tantum Collins on what he’s learned as an AI policy insider at the White House, DeepMind and elsewhere

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Oct 12, 2023

This conversation features Tantum Collins, an AI policy insider with experience at the White House and DeepMind. He discusses the intricate relationship between AI and governance, exploring how new technologies can both enhance government and pose risks in autocratic regimes. Collins emphasizes the need for thoughtful decision-making regarding societal implications of AI, the competitive landscape between the US and China in AI development, and the importance of cross-disciplinary collaboration to address the profound ethical questions the technology raises.

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INSIGHT

AI and State Capacity

AI could significantly increase state capacity, potentially improving governance.
Without addressing alignment with democratic will, this could lead to autocracy.

INSIGHT

Autocratic Lock-in Risk

Autocratic lock-in is a serious risk, where autocracies strengthen their control using AI.
Deliberate action is needed in designing governance to mitigate this risk.

INSIGHT

Increased Attention to AI Risks

Government attention to AI risks, including existential risks, has increased significantly.
Framing AI risks within traditional national security concerns increases their seriousness.

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"If you and I and 100 other people were on the first ship that was going to go settle Mars, and were going to build a human civilisation, and we have to decide what that government looks like, and we have all of the technology available today, how do we think about choosing a subset of that design space?

That space is huge and it includes absolutely awful things, and mixed-bag things, and maybe some things that almost everyone would agree are really wonderful, or at least an improvement on the way that things work today. But that raises all kinds of tricky questions.

My concern is that if we don't approach the evolution of collective decision making and government in a deliberate way, we may end up inadvertently backing ourselves into a corner, where we have ended up on some slippery slope -- and all of a sudden we have, let's say, autocracies on the global stage are strengthened relative to democracies." — Tantum Collins

In today’s episode, host Rob Wiblin gets the rare chance to interview someone with insider AI policy experience at the White House and DeepMind who’s willing to speak openly — Tantum Collins.

Links to learn more, highlights, and full transcript.

They cover:

How AI could strengthen government capacity, and how that's a double-edged sword
How new technologies force us to confront tradeoffs in political philosophy that we were previously able to pretend weren't there
To what extent policymakers take different threats from AI seriously
Whether the US and China are in an AI arms race or not
Whether it's OK to transform the world without much of the world agreeing to it
The tyranny of small differences in AI policy
Disagreements between different schools of thought in AI policy, and proposals that could unite them
How the US AI Bill of Rights could be improved
Whether AI will transform the labour market, and whether it will become a partisan political issue
The tensions between the cultures of San Francisco and DC, and how to bridge the divide between them
What listeners might be able to do to help with this whole mess
Panpsychism
Plenty more

Chapters:

Cold open (00:00:00)
Rob's intro (00:01:00)
The interview begins (00:04:01)
The risk of autocratic lock-in due to AI (00:10:02)
The state of play in AI policymaking (00:13:40)
China and AI (00:32:12)
The most promising regulatory approaches (00:57:51)
Transforming the world without the world agreeing (01:04:44)
AI Bill of Rights (01:17:32)
Who’s ultimately responsible for the consequences of AI? (01:20:39)
Policy ideas that could appeal to many different groups (01:29:08)
Tension between those focused on x-risk and those focused on AI ethics (01:38:56)
Communicating with policymakers (01:54:22)
Is AI going to transform the labour market in the next few years? (01:58:51)
Is AI policy going to become a partisan political issue? (02:08:10)
The value of political philosophy (02:10:53)
Tantum’s work at DeepMind (02:21:20)
CSET (02:32:48)
Career advice (02:35:21)
Panpsychism (02:55:24)

Producer and editor: Keiran Harris
Audio Engineering Lead: Ben Cordell
Technical editing: Simon Monsour and Milo McGuire
Transcriptions: Katy Moore