The Macro Brief by HSBC Global Research Top global talking points
Oct 24, 2025
Janet Henry, Global Chief Economist at HSBC, shares her insights on US economic resilience and future rate cuts. Murat Ulgen, Global Head of Macro Strategy, discusses the bullish market sentiment amidst global uncertainties. Paul Mackel, Global Head of FX Research, analyzes the dollar's potential decline as the Fed eases. They also explore the impact of AI on productivity, emerging markets' stability, and the limited inflationary effects of tariffs. The conversation highlights key issues such as corporate credit risks and gold's appeal amid uncertainty.
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US Growth Is Resilient But Moderating
- US growth remains resilient despite slowing employment and lingering tariff effects.
- HSBC expects Fed cuts in October and December but fewer cuts than markets price for next year.
Investor Optimism Around Emerging Markets
- Investor sentiment at the IMF meetings was upbeat, especially toward emerging markets and risky assets.
- Strong performance this year has investors searching for ideas to carry returns into year-end.
Dollar Weakness Still Has Room To Run
- The dollar's decline has paused but more weakening is likely as the Fed eases and recession risks stay low.
- HSBC sees further dollar weakness ahead, though not indefinitely.