Jim Royal, Author of "Zen of Thrift Conversions", on the basics of Thrift Conversions
Jan 9, 2024
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Jim Royal, Author of 'Zen of Thrift Conversions', provides the basics of 'Thrift Conversions' in this podcast. He discusses the safety and management incentives associated with these conversions. Jim also explains how investors can participate in IPOs of thrift conversions and explores the current banking environment. He highlights the characteristics of poor conversions and the importance of investor activism. Additionally, he shares three interesting de-mutualizations to look at. Overall, this podcast offers valuable insights into the world of thrift conversions and their potential benefits for investors.
Thrift conversions offer investors undervalued stock prices and the potential for long-term appreciation.
Thrift conversions align interests with depositors, ensuring a safer investment and potential profit from smart capital allocation moves.
The involvement of activist investors can enhance the attractiveness of thrift conversions, but thorough evaluation of banks is necessary to mitigate risks and maximize returns.
Deep dives
The Benefits and Opportunities of Thrift Conversions
Thrifting, the process of a mutual bank going public, offers attractive opportunities for investors. During the initial public offering (IPO), investors have the chance to participate and buy shares at an undervalued price. After the IPO, the stock price may experience a pop, providing short-term gains, but even after the pop, the stock can still provide long-term appreciation. Furthermore, thrift conversions often lead to consolidation in the banking industry, with larger companies acquiring these thrift banks at a premium to tangible book value. This consolidation trend increases the potential for investors to earn higher returns. While activists sometimes get involved in advocating for changes within the thrift banks, the absence of an activist investor is not necessarily a negative indicator. Overall, thrift conversions can offer investors the benefits of undervalued stock prices, potential long-term appreciation, and the prospect of consolidation in the banking industry.
Understanding the Thrift Conversion Process and Incentives
The process of thrift conversions involves depositors becoming shareholders, and insiders, including the CEO and directors, also participating in the IPO. This alignment of interests contributes to the overall attractiveness of these conversions. The IPO process allows depositors to purchase shares at a relatively low price, providing an opportunity to benefit from the stock's potential upside. Additionally, the recapitalization of the bank through the IPO ensures a safer investment with a significant cash balance and a lower risk of financial crisis. Activist investors may also play a role in influencing management decisions and pushing for smart capital allocation moves, potentially leading to a sale of the bank in the future. Overall, the thrift conversion process creates incentives for insiders, aligns interests with depositors, and offers potential upside for shareholders.
The Role of Activist Investors and Risks to Consider
Activist investors can have a significant impact on thrift banks, pushing for changes and improvements in management and capital allocation. Their involvement can enhance the attractiveness of an investment within the thrift conversion space. However, investors should also be mindful of the risks associated with certain banks. Some banks may engage in self-dealing or inadequate capital allocation, which can negatively impact shareholder returns. The absence of activist investors does not necessarily indicate a problem, particularly when other positive fundamental metrics, such as insider ownership and repurchases, are present. Investors should thoroughly evaluate the banks' financial health, management practices, and potential for consolidation in order to make well-informed investment decisions. Furthermore, the long-term trend of thrift banks getting acquired at a premium to tangible book value highlights the potential for attractive risk-adjusted returns in this space.
Importance of Long-Term Opportunities and Potential Upside
Investors who solely focus on the initial public offering (IPO) and the first weeks of trading may overlook substantial upside in a company's long-term potential. By buying stocks immediately after the IPO, investors have the opportunity to invest with as much money as they like without allocation limits. This approach allows buyers to acquire stocks at attractive prices compared to their fundamental value, especially if they have a long-term view. In contrast, investors who only focus on short-term gains may miss out on significant returns.
Repurchases and Creating Shareholder Value
One of the most effective ways for banks to increase shareholder value is through aggressive stock repurchases. Banks can buy back their own shares below tangible book value, making accretive capital allocation moves that benefit remaining shareholders. Aggressively repurchasing stock is an excellent sign that bank managers are actively looking out for shareholders and not using the capital for other self-serving purposes. Banks that engage in active repurchases are often well-positioned for potential acquisitions, as they are able to retire stock quickly, leading to immediate accretion for investors.
Jim Royal, Author of "Zen of Thrift Conversions", joins the podcast to provide the basics of "Thrift Conversions", what that means, as well as examples that help illuminate them.
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[1:49] The basics of "Thrift Conversions"
[8:51] Safety
[11:25] Management incentives
[15:46] How can investors participate in IPO of thrift conversions
[19:58] Needham
[23:50] Thrift Conversions in current banking environment
[27:26] Return on equities and repurchases
[35:39] Characteristics of poor de-mutualizations and thrift conversions
[39:14] Investor Activism
[45:08] Why thrift conversions sell during a given time frame and why some don't
[47:36] Worthwhile for investors to look at second step conversions (because so complicated)?
[51:00] Lightening round: why more mutuals in the Northeast than elsewhere? How much does geography matter?
[53:59] Three (3) interesting de-mutualizations to look at, according to Jim Royal
Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge
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