Into the AI Trough of Disillusionment

Tom and Nate catch up after a few weeks off the pod. We discuss what it means for the pace and size of open models to get bigger and bigger. In some ways, this disillusionment is a great way to zoom our into the big picture. These models are coming. These models are getting cheaper. We need to think about risks and infrastructure more than open vs. closed.

00:00 Introduction 
01:16 Recent developments in open model releases 
04:21 Tom's experience viewing the total solar eclipse
09:38 The Three-Body Problem book and Netflix
14:06 The Gartner Hype Cycle
22:51 Infrastructure constraints on scaling AI
28:47 Metaphors and narratives around AI risk
34:43 Rethinking AI risk as public health problems
37:37 The "one-way door" nature of releasing open model weights
44:04 The relationship between the AI ecosystem and the models
48:24 Wrapping up the discussion in the "trough of disillusionment"

We've got some links for you again:
- Gartner hype cycle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle 
- MSFT Supercomputer https://www.theinformation.com/articles/microsoft-and-openai-plot-100-billion-stargate-ai-supercomputer 
- Safety is about systems https://www.aisnakeoil.com/p/ai-safety-is-not-a-model-property 
- Earth day history https://www.earthday.org/history/ 
- For our loyal listeners http://tudorsbiscuitworld.com/