Bloomberg Surveillance The Path for Rate Cuts and Polling 2024
May 22, 2024
Seema Shah, David Malpass, and Liz Ann Sonders discuss global macro outlook, US exceptionalism, US and global economies, government debt, markets, rate cuts pace, and the latest Bloomberg poll on the 2024 election, covering economic forecasting challenges, consumer sentiment, inflation impact, economic indicators, market trends, presidential polls analysis, campaign strategies, and the VP candidate's role in influencing voters.
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Central Bank Strategy
- Central banks are closely analyzing incoming economic data, similar to market analysts.
- Their plans are not fixed, adapting to the evolving economic landscape.
Economic Forecasting Challenges
- Economic forecasts, including those by the Bank of England, have been too pessimistic.
- COVID-19 fundamentally changed the economy, making traditional forecasting models less reliable.
Soft Landing Uncertainty
- The US economy might be experiencing a soft landing, but it's too early to confirm.
- Seema Shah expresses concern about the Fed's ability to maintain a soft landing beyond 3-6 months.