The Intelligence from The Economist Laïcité, extrémité, fragilité: our French-election series in full
Apr 9, 2022
Sophie Petter, the Paris bureau chief for The Economist, dives into the intense atmosphere surrounding the upcoming French presidential election. She discusses the complex political landscape, highlighting public discontent with Emmanuel Macron's policies and the rising influence of the far-right. The podcast examines youth support for Marine Le Pen's National Rally and debates surrounding identity and belonging in France. Petter also explores the impact of geopolitical tensions on Macron's campaign and the shifting allegiances among voters.
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Macron's Predicted Victory
- French voters haven't re-elected an incumbent president since Jacques Chirac two decades ago.
- The Economist's model predicts Macron will break this pattern.
Visiting Saint-Bris
- The Paris bureau chief visited Saint-Bris, a Parisian suburb, to understand the French election.
- This suburb represents the average French voter.
French Election Model
- The Economist's French election model uses polls dating back to 1965 to predict outcomes.
- It simulates 10 million scenarios due to the two-round system.