The Eisman Playbook Big Short Crew Talk Market Turmoil, Tariffs, and Lessons from the Financial Crisis
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Apr 7, 2025 Danny Moses, Porter Collins, and Vincent Daniel, former partners of Steve Eisman, share their insights from the financial world. They tackle the chaos stirred by recent tariffs and reflect on strategies for a potential bear market. Personal anecdotes from the 2008 crisis provide humor and depth, emphasizing lessons learned during financial turmoil. They discuss the vulnerabilities of optimized supply chains and critique current economic policies, revealing how past experiences shape their approach to today's market challenges.
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Tariffs Shock Supply Chains
- The recent aggressive tariffs announced by President Trump are highly disruptive and shock-based.
- Supply chains and outsourcing built over decades cannot be undone overnight without significant pain.
U.S. Better Positioned in Trade War
- The U.S. is better positioned than most countries to weather a trade war due to its lower export GDP percentage.
- Retaliation might last about a month before countries come to negotiate to avoid recession.
De-risk During Market Turmoil
- In volatile markets caused by tariff uncertainty, de-risk your portfolio by reducing gross exposure both long and short.
- Avoid pressing shorts aggressively, and wait for clearer market signals before making major moves.
