Bloomberg Intelligence Instant Reaction: US Payrolls Marked Down a Record 911,000 in Preliminary Estimate
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Sep 9, 2025 US job growth has taken a serious hit, with a staggering downward revision of 911,000 jobs revealed. This shocking revelation raises questions about the actual state of the economy and puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider lowering interest rates. Geopolitical tensions also emerge as a key factor, driving up oil prices and potential inflation. Experts analyze how these shifts in payroll data could impact market yields and future economic decisions, making for a deeply insightful discussion.
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Revision Shows Weaker Employment Trend
- The large negative 911,000 payroll revision signals slower employment growth than previously reported across the year to March.
- That weaker trend increases pressure on the Fed to cut rates sooner and possibly in multiple steps.
Expect A 25bp Cut And Watch Fed Guidance
- The Fed should act cautiously and is likely to take a 25 basis point cut as the base case rather than a large immediate cut.
- Watch the updated dot plot and the Fed's guidance to learn whether they signal a sequence of cuts beyond the initial move.
Revisions Inform Trend More Than Forecast
- Revisions update past data and are not necessarily predictive of the next 3-12 months, but they reveal a more severe recent trend.
- Markets are forward-looking, so the revision matters mainly for trend assessment and expectations about policy and yields.