Why Greatness Cannot Be Planned (with Joel Lehman)
Mar 22, 2024
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Former OpenAI Research Scientist Joel Lehman discusses the non-linear nature of technological progress and the implications of his book 'Why Greatness Cannot Be Planned'. Topics include AI time horizons, exploration vs exploitation for AI startups, importance of stepping stones for AGI, and whether venture money is going to the wrong place.
Significant progress arises from pursuing what is interesting, not explicit plans.
Innovation often builds upon existing stepping stones laid by others.
Global competition may hinder creativity, local exploration fosters diverse thinking and unique solutions.
Deep dives
The Thesis of 'Why Greatness Cannot Be Planned'
The central idea of the book suggests that significant leaps of progress do not arise from explicit plans but emerge from pursuing what is interesting. The authors argue that many celebrated achievements were never originally planned and often rely on discoveries made implicitly.
Innovation and Stepping Stones
The podcast delves into the concept that innovation often requires building on existing stepping stones laid by others, emphasizing that progress is not always a direct result of explicit goals. Examples like the development of rock and roll and technological advancements such as computers highlight this reliance on preceding discoveries.
Challenging Conventional Goals
The discussion questions the conventional approach of setting direct, short-term goals in fields like AI, suggesting that navigating through diverse paths and exploration could lead to more profound advancements. It explores the balance between pursuing leading-edge ambitions and recognizing the impact of prior contributions.
Exploring Novelty and Creativity Locally vs. Globally
The conversation explores the impact of global competition on novelty and creativity, highlighting the significance of local exploration in honing creative skills and finding unique solutions. It contemplates the benefits of fostering creativity in less competitive environments to encourage diverse thinking and novelty without the pressure of global standards.
Investing in Interesting Ventures
The podcast touches on a refreshing investment perspective that focuses on engaging with ventures that personally resonate or spark curiosity, rather than solely chasing conventional business success indicators. This approach suggests that investing in ventures based on genuine interest and potential for learning can lead to novel insights and valuable experiences.
Former OpenAI Research Scientist Joel Lehman joins to discuss the non-linear nature of technological progress and the present day implications of his book, Why Greatness Cannot Be Planned.
Joel co-authored the book with Kenneth Stanley back in 2015. The two did ML research at OpenAI, Uber, and the University of Central Florida and wrote the book based on insights from their work.
We discuss:
AI time horizons, and the Implications for investors, researchers, and entrepreneurs
Exploration vs exploitation for AI startups and researchers, and where to fit in differential bets to avoid direct competition
The stepping stones that will be crucial for AGI
Whether startups should be training models or focusing on the AI application layer
Whether to focus on scaling out transformers or to take alternative bets
Is venture money going to the wrong place?
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