All Things Aviation: The many pieces of SAF policy and production (part 3)
Oct 8, 2024
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Ina Chirita, the Europe lead on biofuels research at S&P Global Commodity Insights, and Jamie Dorner, the US biofuels Senior Principal Research Analyst, dive deep into the evolving landscape of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). They discuss how different policies in Europe and the US impact production, highlighting Europe’s strict mandates versus America's incentive-based approach. The challenges of feedstock availability and fluctuating market conditions are explored, along with predictions for future SAF production capacities and their implications for the global market.
The global transition to sustainable aviation fuel is influenced by diverse national mandates, with Europe aiming for 70% SAF by 2050.
Production pathways for sustainable aviation fuel are evolving, transitioning from HEFA to emerging methods like alcohol-to-jet and gasification by 2050.
Deep dives
Policy Updates on Sustainable Aviation Fuel
The implementation of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates is gaining traction globally, significantly impacting the aviation industry's transition to net zero emissions. Brazil is set to enact the Fuel of the Future bill, raising its ethanol mandate and introducing a SAF mandate that aims for a 10% emissions reduction by 2037. In contrast, the U.S. lacks federal mandates but offers incentives through the Inflation Reduction Act, encouraging SAF production with credits that will change in 2025. Meanwhile, Europe leads with structured mandates, aiming for a gradual increase to 70% SAF by 2050 under the refuel EU aviation regulation.
Production Pathways and Challenges Ahead
The podcast highlights the current and future production pathways for SAF, with the HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) method being the most utilized today. However, as the industry advances, newer pathways such as alcohol-to-jet and gasification are expected to dominate production by 2050. There are concerns about meeting the ambitious SAF production targets, particularly after 2035, as only half of the announced SAF projects have reached the final investment decision stage. Production challenges are compounded by a potential shortage of lipid feedstocks, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, which could create supply issues as demand ramps up.
Market Dynamics and Pricing Trends
Current market conditions for SAF are challenging, exemplified by a significant drop in premium pricing, which fell from nearly $2,000 to about $1,000 per metric ton. This decline is driven by a mix of increased supply and stagnant demand, leading to poor margins for SAF producers. In the U.S., additional credits and state-level incentives are anticipated to create better market conditions moving forward, especially as new policies take effect. The European market is also seeing similar pressures with fluctuating prices for renewable fuels, illustrating the complexities and uncertainties within the SAF sector as it adapts to evolving regulations and market demands.
This is episode 3 of All Things Aviation, a special six-part series focussing on the dynamics, trends and outlooks in the aviation sector.
In this episode, Sophie Byron, global director of biofuels pricing at S&P Global Commodity Insights, and Tom Washington, senior news writer covering biofuels in the EMEA region, are joined by Ina Chirita and Jamie Dorner, Europe and America leads in the biofuels research team.
They take a look at the complexities of the rapidly evolving Sustainable Aviation Fuel market, including feedstocks, policy and distribution. They also discuss some of the headwinds that have beset the SAF market in recent months and how long these could last.