Barry Knapp gives his takeaways from today’s services data. He doesn’t think inflation is a “big risk” here, arguing that monetary policy and government spending are now headwinds for it. He thinks the BLS unemployment rate should be higher because he doesn’t think it counts immigrant labor or small businesses correctly. Barry calls for a potential 50 basis point rate cut and lays out the conditions that could get the Fed to do so.

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Knapp: Inflation not a ‘Big Risk’ but Unemployment Rate is Higher than Shown