The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast 977: Finding a Fantasy Football Edge With Mock Drafts
Mar 11, 2025
Mock drafts aren't just fun; they can actually offer insights for fantasy football success. The discussion dives into how predictive data can enhance drafting strategies. One intriguing analysis reveals that actual draft positions outweigh projections in predicting player performance. The episode emphasizes the importance of being cautious with risky selections, providing valuable tips for an edge in your fantasy league.
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Projected vs. Actual Draft Capital
- JJ Zachariason questions if projected draft capital, based on aggregate mock drafts, is more predictive than actual draft capital.
- He suggests the wisdom of the crowd might offer better insights than individual NFL teams.
Tutu Atwell Example
- JJ Zachariason cites Tutu Atwell's surprise second-round selection by the Rams as an example.
- He questions if the Rams' assessment was an outlier, highlighting the potential limitations of relying solely on a team's draft decision.
Actual Draft Capital Wins
- Actual draft capital correlates more with fantasy success (B2S) than projected draft capital.
- The gap is smaller for running backs than wide receivers, suggesting other factors may be at play.