The Importance of Draft Capital

Draft capital plays a critical role in predicting a player's success in the NFL, as established by the analysis of players drafted from 2016 to 2022. Actual draft capital has been found to be more predictive of a player's best two seasons in terms of points per game than projected draft capital from aggregate mock drafts. This is attributed to the thorough evaluations by NFL teams that tailor their draft strategies to their specific needs and player capabilities. Although the distinction between the two types of capital is not drastic, the analysis suggests that actual draft positions provide a better indication of fantasy success.