The Global Food Shortage: Can We Prevent a Hunger Crisis?
Nov 13, 2023
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The podcast explores the causes of the global food shortage, including the Russia vs Ukraine war, extreme weather conditions, and economic factors. It discusses China's hoarding behavior and the potential shortage in wheat and corn. The benefits of gold in investment portfolios are highlighted, along with rising fertilizer prices. Factors contributing to the food shortage are discussed, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the effects of just-in-time inventory system. The importance of being prepared for potential food shortages is emphasized.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused disruptions in grain exports, leading to potential global food shortages and increased prices.
Rising fertilizer prices, influenced by factors like gas prices and import dependencies, are hindering farmers' ability to meet the growing demand for food.
Deep dives
Food Insecurity and Global Food Shortage
Food insecurity is a growing concern globally, with 345 million people worldwide unsure of where their next meal will come from. This number has doubled in just three years, raising alarm about the availability and accessibility of food. The impact is not limited to developing nations, as recent disruptions in grain exports from Ukraine due to the conflict with Russia have affected global trade. Ukraine and Russia collectively accounted for one-third of the world's wheat trade, 17% of maize trade, and 75% of sunflower oil trade. The resulting increase in food prices and potential shortages of staple products like wheat and corn could have far-reaching consequences, including the possibility of triggering a global recession.
Challenges in Fertilizer Production and Supply
Fertilizer is an essential input for agricultural production, but rising fertilizer prices are posing challenges for farmers worldwide. The cost of fertilizers has increased by 73% since 2020, with fertilizer accounting for about a third of annual farming expenses. The production of key fertilizers, such as nitrogen and phosphate, is influenced by factors like gas prices and import dependencies. While nitrogen production is primarily based in the United States, phosphate mostly comes from Florida with some imports from other countries. However, the supply of potash, another crucial fertilizer, is heavily reliant on Canada, Russia, and Belarus, making it vulnerable to disruptions like the current tensions between Russia and Ukraine. These challenges in fertilizer production and supply are hindering farmers' ability to meet the growing demand for food.
Drought, Just-in-Time Inventory, and Future Preparedness
Food insecurity is further exacerbated by factors like drought and disruptions in the global supply chain. South America has been experiencing severe drought for three consecutive years, affecting countries like Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, which are major food exporters. Additionally, the reliance on just-in-time inventory management systems, where goods are received close to when they are needed, has been highlighted as problematic during times of supply chain disruptions. The recent challenges faced in global trade, such as shipping delays and stuck ships, have exposed vulnerabilities in this inventory strategy. While the United States is less likely to face immediate food shortages, considering the strength of its economy, it is advisable for individuals to consider being prepared in case of future uncertainties, such as stockpiling essential items and exploring alternative agricultural practices like vertical farming.
Patrick Bet-David explains the causes behind the looming global food shortage. Citing the Russia vs Ukraine war, extreme weather conditions, and economic factors.
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Patrick Bet-David is the founder and CEO of Valuetainment Media. He is the author of the #1 Wall Street Journal Bestseller Your Next Five Moves
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