The Biggest US Trading Partner Is No Longer China!
Sep 14, 2023
auto_awesome
Discover how Mexico has surpassed China as the biggest supplier of goods to the US amid the US-China trade war. Explore the challenges and opportunities for Mexico as a global trade power. Analyze the 2022 Foreign Direct Investment in Mexico and question the significance of near-shoring. Compare Mexico to Asian competitors and discuss the potential for near-shoring. Examine the impact of trade balance on global demand and its effects on the global trading system.
Mexico has overtaken China as the biggest supplier of goods to the United States due to changes in US trade policy.
While Mexico offers advantages for near-shoring, it still faces difficulties in competing with China's scale and infrastructure advantages.
Deep dives
Mexico's potential as a beneficiary of US trade changes
In recent years, Mexico has been positioned to benefit from changes in US trade policy. With the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods by the US administration, American manufacturers started to look for alternative suppliers. Mexico, with its skilled workforce, robust infrastructure, and proximity to the United States, seemed like an attractive option. However, despite a slight increase in the proportion of manufactured goods imported from Mexico, low-cost Asian countries such as Vietnam and Taiwan emerged as the big winners in global trade. The Biden administration retained most of the Trump tariffs and expanded the trade war, aiming to reduce dependence on China. This created a business opportunity for Mexico, but it has yet to fully capitalize on it.
Challenges and limitations for manufacturing in Mexico
While Mexico offers advantages for near-shoring, it also presents challenges. The country ranks poorly on the Corruption Perception Index, has a high crime rate, and does not score well in terms of ease of doing business or infrastructure. Furthermore, water shortages and electricity shortages pose limitations to manufacturing growth. China, with its first-rate infrastructure and strong manufacturing capabilities, remains a major competitor. Although some companies have diversified their factory locations away from China, Mexico still faces difficulties in competing with China's scale and infrastructure advantages.
The uncertain reality of near-shoring in Mexico
While media attention has focused on the potential of near-shoring in Mexico, there is limited evidence to support a significant shift in investment. Trade statistics show a modest increase in Mexico's share of trade with the US, but when compared to other Asian countries, the increase is relatively small. Foreign direct investment has shown some growth, but it does not necessarily indicate a large-scale near-shoring trend. The current government's anti-business stance and unfavorable business environment have hindered major changes in investment. Whether near-shoring will truly happen on a large scale in Mexico remains uncertain, although its geographic location and free trade agreement with the US continue to be appealing factors.
Send us a textThe US-China trade war is rewiring global trade. While the US seeks to reduce its reliance on China and other geopolitical rivals and start sourcing imports from closer to home, Mexico is starting to shine. Mexico has just overtaken China as the biggest supplier of goods to the United States.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/...
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode