Rebel Capitalist News Here's The Worlds Most Powerful Recession Indicator
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May 16, 2025 A rising trend in U.S. credit card delinquency rates hints at looming economic distress, reminiscent of pre-crisis conditions. As student loan payments restart, the fears of an impending recession grow alongside stagnant wages and inflation. A new recession indicator based on non-farm payroll metrics is introduced, urging investors to tread carefully. The discussion emphasizes the complexities of current economic indicators and the potential shifts in investment strategies influenced by Federal Reserve policies.
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Rising Credit Card Delinquency Signals Distress
- Rising credit card delinquency signals broad financial distress among U.S. households.
- Delinquency levels now approach those seen in the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, even with a supposedly strong labor market.
Student Loan Delinquencies Surge Again
- Student loan delinquencies surge as federal forbearance programs end.
- Millions face renewed payments averaging $400/month, worsening financial strain despite stagnant wages.
Non-Farm Payrolls Predict Recessions
- Non-farm payrolls are the most powerful single recession indicator.
- Consistent negative payroll numbers for months often coincide with recession onset.