Pollster Sarah Longwell and strategist Tim Miller discuss two-time Trump voters considering a switch due to January 6th, fraud claims, and trials. They listen to a focus group and strategize on convincing these voters for Biden in 2024. Ben Wikler joins to offer persuasion tips. The podcast delves into engaging with diverse voters, preventing Trump's return to power, and navigating biased news sources.
The January 6th insurrection and Trump's election claims have prompted some two-time Trump voters to question their support, focusing on preserving democratic values.
Trump's legal battles, including potential felony charges, are a significant factor in undecided voters' considerations, potentially impacting future political leadership.
Media coverage of Trump's rallies and legal proceedings plays a crucial role in informing swing voters and influencing voter decisions, highlighting the challenge of biased information sources.
Deep dives
Swing Voters' Reevaluation of Trump
There is a group of voters who are reconsidering their support for Trump, including two-time Trump voters and former Republicans. These individuals, who may have previously voted for Trump, are now finding it challenging to continue supporting him due to various reasons. Factors such as Trump's actions on January 6th and his handling of issues like private medical decisions and the democracy breach are contributing to their reevaluation.
The Impact of January 6th and Trust in the System
The January 6th insurrection at the Capitol and Trump's post-election claims have heightened the salience of democracy and government trust for voters. Some two-time Trump voters are expressing dismay over the events of January 6th, feeling that Trump has gone too far. These voters stress the importance of preserving democratic values and upholding trust in the political system.
The Relevance of Trump's Legal Troubles
Trump's ongoing legal battles, such as potential felony charges, are being closely watched by voters. While opinions on Trump's legal issues may vary among different voter groups, the possibility of Trump being convicted of felonies could sway undecided voters. These legal matters could serve as a significant campaign topic, influencing swing voters' perceptions of Trump and his suitability for future political leadership.
Media Influence on Swing Voters
The podcast discusses the impact of media coverage on swing voters and their perception of Trump's legal and political situations. It emphasizes the importance of live coverage of Trump's rallies and court proceedings to reach voters who might not be closely following the news. The conversation highlights the challenge of voters receiving information through biased media filters and the potential influence of courtroom outcomes on voter decisions.
Persuading Two-Time Trump Voters
The episode delves into strategies for persuading past Trump voters, focusing on concerns about Trump's behavior and potential dictatorial tendencies. It suggests highlighting the contrast between Trump's unpredictability and Biden's perceived stability surrounded by competent advisors. The discussion revolves around addressing reservations about Biden, particularly related to his age and connecting with voters through personalized, nuanced conversations that delve into shared values and concerns.
Jon is joined by longtime pollster Sarah Longwell and former Republican strategist Tim Miller to get inside the minds of two-time Trump voters who are no longer sure if they’ll vote for him again. What’s changed? Well, January 6th, a few criminal trials, and some obviously bogus claims that the election was stolen. But is that enough to get them over the line for Joe Biden? Jon, Tim, and Sarah listen to a focus group tape of these voters to figure out how they’re leaning in 2024 and then Ben Wikler, Chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, joins to help teach you how to persuade the Biden-curious Trump voter in your life.