Under the Banyan Tree - What's bugging Asian markets?
Nov 3, 2023
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Exploring the causes behind the decline in investor sentiment in Asian markets, including concerns over Chinese growth and US interest rates. Impact of interest rates in the US and the growth in China on global stock markets. Potential scenarios for Chinese equities and the challenges faced by Jakarta, including sinking.
The rise in US interest rates has negatively impacted Asian markets, leading to a strong dollar and weakening local currencies, resulting in increased import costs for local economies.
Concerns about Chinese growth and doubts about the sustainability of earnings have affected equity investors, leading to outflows from foreign investors. However, recent economic data suggests that the Chinese economy is performing better than expected.
Deep dives
Impact of Rising US Interest Rates on Asian Markets
The rise in US interest rates has had a negative impact on Asian markets. Higher than expected interest rates in the US have rattled markets globally, and this uncertainty has filtered into Asia. The stronger US economy and the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have caused worry among investors. This situation has resulted in a strong dollar, weakening local currencies in Asia and increasing import costs for local economies. Certain Asian central banks have already raised interest rates or delayed rate cuts to protect their exchange rates, which directly affects the Asian markets.
The Effect of Chinese Growth Concerns on Equities
Chinese growth concerns have also contributed to the current market conditions. The fear of weaker Chinese growth and doubts about the sustainability of earnings have impacted equity investors. Despite relatively positive earnings growth in China, investors worry about future durability. Confidence in the Chinese market has been affected, leading to outflows from foreign investors. However, it's important to note that the Chinese equity market is mainly driven by local retail buyers. The market's performance hinges on the reversal of rising US interest rates and the outlook for Chinese growth.
Prospects for Chinese Economy and Markets
While there are concerns about Chinese growth and rising US interest rates, there are also positive signs. Recent economic data, such as third quarter GDP growth of 4.9%, suggests that the Chinese economy is performing better than expected. Areas like infrastructure spending, manufacturing investment, and consumer services demand continue to show growth. However, there are concerns about the durability of growth in the coming years. The outcome for Chinese equities largely relies on whether the issues of rising interest rates and Chinese growth move in opposite directions or not. In either case, it could significantly impact the performance of Chinese equities.