Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: June 16, 2025
Jun 16, 2025
Aaron David Miller, a Senior Fellow for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, shares insights on the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, highlighting the potential for conflict. Ellen Wald, a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, discusses the implications of these tensions for energy prices in the Middle East. Their conversation reveals how geopolitical strife is intricately linked to economic forecasts, making it a captivating discussion for those interested in the intersection of global affairs and market dynamics.
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Fed's Dual Mandate Challenge
- The Fed faces a challenging growth and inflation mix with a dual mandate that is increasingly in tension.
- Their median projections show an expected weak labor market, but their actual reaction depends on future scenario analysis.
Geopolitics Impact Corporate Credit
- Geopolitical conflicts could cause higher corporate credit risk premiums and sector-specific disruptions.
- So far, the market has not faced sustained supply chain issues, but the duration and magnitude are still unknown.
Speculative Grade Defaults Details
- Defaults have risen quietly among the smallest speculative grade companies, often repeat defaulters, but the market performance remains stable.
- Investors watch troubled pockets like US CCCs and leveraged loans but must balance avoiding downside and opportunity costs.