The Blunt Dollar Philippe Gijsels: Why Cash Might Be Your Riskiest Asset
Nov 25, 2025
Philippe Gijsels, Chief Strategy Officer at BNP Paribas Fortis and co-author of The New World Economy in Five Trends, shares his unique insights on the market. He discusses how narratives shape investing and why psychology often outweighs traditional models. Philippe introduces a ‘three windows’ framework for market analysis and reveals five critical megatrends impacting the economy, including superinflation and hyper-innovation. He also emphasizes the importance of storytelling in finance and offers engaging metaphors to simplify complex ideas.
01:05:18
Cash Loses Real Value In Inflation
- Cash is nominally safe but can lose real value rapidly during sustained inflation.
- Philippe Gijsels warns that cash is risky when inflation erodes purchasing power over time.
First Stock: The Olivetti Lesson
- Philippe recounts buying Olivetti as his first stock, which later went bankrupt.
- He uses it to illustrate early mistakes teach lasting lessons in investing.
Use Three Windows To Test Ideas
- Use three windows to form robust views: study (library), market signals (beach/Bloomberg), and real-world checks (campfire/congress).
- Cross-check ideas across these windows before acting to avoid timing and narrative errors.
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Intro
00:00 • 2min
Early Market Passion and First Mistakes
01:41 • 2min
Interdisciplinary Thinking: Psychology and History
03:47 • 5min
Three Windows Framework
08:47 • 4min
Becoming a Better Storyteller
12:25 • 6min
Using Metaphors to Make Ideas Stick
18:12 • 3min
Why They Wrote 'Five Trends' Book
21:00 • 19sec
Ad break
21:19 • 30sec
The Five Megatrends Overview
21:49 • 3min
Innovation Versus Inflationary Forces
25:07 • 3min
Superinflation Defined and Risks
28:34 • 5min
Real Assets as Inflation Hedge
33:51 • 3min
Don't Play Where You Don't Know Rules
37:05 • 4min
Reflexivity and Self-Fulfilling Markets
40:43 • 5min
Social Media Amplifies Market Narratives
46:00 • 3min
Aligning Client Horizons with Cycles
48:43 • 5min
Alligator Principle: Cut Losses Quickly
53:34 • 4min
Least Wrong Approach and Humility
57:14 • 4min
Advice for New Investors: Love Your Work
01:01:18 • 4min
Outro
01:04:50 • 25sec
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In this episode of The Blunt Dollar, Ignacio sits down with Philippe Gijsels, Chief Strategy Officer at BNP Paribas Fortis and co-author of "The New World Economy in Five Trends". With decades of market experience and a mind shaped by literature, history, psychology, and economics, Philippe brings a truly unique perspective to investing. This conversation is a deep dive into the ideas behind his work, from market cycles to storytelling, strategy to philosophy.
📚 How stories shape markets and the power of narrative in investing
🧠 Why reflexivity, psychology, and human behavior matter more than models
🔥 The five megatrends driving today's world: inflation, innovation, demographics, climate, and geopolitics
🏖️ From the beach bar to Bloomberg: Philippe’s “three windows” framework for viewing the world
🐊 Lessons from pigeons, poker games, and alligators: analogies that bring strategy to life
If you’re into market history, macro strategy, or simply love hearing from thinkers who blend rigor with storytelling, this one’s for you.
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Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Listeners should consult a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions.