Join Jonathan Schanzer, an expert on Middle East issues; Reuel Marc Gerecht, who provides deep analysis on regional affairs; and Michael Doran, a veteran of the Bush administration, as they dive into the implications of regime change in Syria. They discuss the rise of the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the weakening of Iran and Russia’s influence, and how Turkey's Erdogan stands to gain. The conversation also touches on the complex sectarian dynamics and historical tensions in the region, making for an insightful and engaging discussion.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad is perceived positively for removing a brutal dictator, but raises concerns about HTS's extremist connections.
The regime change weakens Iranian and Russian influence in Syria while enhancing Turkey's strategic role in the region.
HTS's leadership under Abu Mohammad al-Jolani may signal a potential shift toward more moderate governance, but skepticism remains.
Deep dives
The Implications of Assad's Fall
The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad represents a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. While the fall is seen positively in terms of removing a brutal dictator, it raises concerns regarding the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group with ties to al-Qaeda and ISIS. This transition indicates not only a weakening of Syrian regime alliances with Iran and Russia but also a strengthening of Turkish involvement in the region. The potential removal of Assad shifts the balance of power, making Turkey a dominant influence in negotiations over Syria's future.
Regional Power Dynamics
The change in leadership in Syria impacts multiple regional players, notably Iran and Turkey. Iranian support for Assad has been crucial, and his fall could diminish Iran’s influence in the region, upsetting its strategic ambitions. Conversely, Turkish President Erdoğan's backing of HTS may bolster Turkey's influence amidst rising Sunni jihadist factions. This complex interplay could either stabilize or further destabilize the region, depending on how these nations navigate their newly adjusted relationships.
The Nature of HTS and Its Leadership
The leadership of HTS, particularly Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, prompts scrutiny regarding its ideology and future intentions. While Jolani represents a faction that emerges from militant roots, recent actions suggest a potential shift toward a more nationally focused agenda, including attempts to engage positively with differing cultural groups. However, there remains skepticism about HTS's commitment to moderation, especially when past behaviors reflect autocratic rule under Islamic law. The internal and external pressures on Jolani may shape the direction he takes, balancing between jihadist objectives and governing responsibilities.
Israel's Strategic Outlook
The dynamics of Assad's fall afford Israel perceived security benefits by eliminating a hostile proxy in the region. However, the emergence of HTS brings concerns about potential Sunni militant threats to Israel's borders. Despite the removal of Syrian regime assets, such as chemical weapons and military apparatus, the nature of Sunni extremism poses new challenges for Israel's security strategy. Thus, while the regime change in Syria may offer short-term benefits, the long-term implications concerning Israeli security remain uncertain as they adapt to a new regime in their vicinity.
International and Domestic Repercussions
The implications of regime change in Syria extend beyond immediate regional shifts and delve into the realm of international diplomacy and governance. Countries like Qatar and Turkey may seek to influence the future landscape heavily, possibly leading to a new power structure focused on Sunni jihadism. The potential normalization of HTS's governance raises concerns among neighboring nations which fear the export of extremist ideologies. Ultimately, the reconstruction of Syria, alongside the pressing need for stability, creates a conundrum involving both local power brokers and international stakeholders navigating their vested interests.
The overthrow of longtime, mass-murdering dictator Bashar al-Assad is a good thing. But those who did the overthrowing? Not good.
The most important rebel group involved in this revolution is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, better known as HTS. It has roots in both al Qaeda and the Islamic State (also known as ISIS). Its leader’s nom de guerre is Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. He and HTS have been officially designated as terrorists by the U.S. government.
The fall of Assad weakens Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Both had backed Assad, and both had derived benefits from Assad in exchange.
And the fall of Assad strengthens Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
To discuss all of this and more, host Cliff May is joined by Jonathan Schanzer, Reuel Marc Gerecht, and Michael Doran.
NOTE: We hope you enjoy the soothing sounds of Reuel's Ring Doorbell chimes.
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