Foreign Podicy What Does Regime Change in Syria Change?
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Dec 20, 2024 Join Jonathan Schanzer, an expert on Middle East issues; Reuel Marc Gerecht, who provides deep analysis on regional affairs; and Michael Doran, a veteran of the Bush administration, as they dive into the implications of regime change in Syria. They discuss the rise of the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the weakening of Iran and Russia’s influence, and how Turkey's Erdogan stands to gain. The conversation also touches on the complex sectarian dynamics and historical tensions in the region, making for an insightful and engaging discussion.
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Assad Regime Weakened
- The Assad regime was weakened by Israel's war against Iran and Hezbollah.
- Hezbollah's presence was crucial for Assad's power, and Israeli attacks diminished their influence.
HTS Advance
- HTS likely advanced due to the realization they could continue their offensive.
- The Syrian regime was hollowed out by the civil war and its losses.
Syrian History
- Syria was formed from various groups, including Sunnis, Kurds, Druze, and Alawites, under Ottoman rule and later by Sykes-Picot.
- The Alawites, a Shiite sect, held power for 50 years under Hafez al-Assad.