POLITICO Tech Why the latest U.S.-China tech fight may be the biggest yet
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Oct 16, 2025 Liza Tobin, a geopolitical risk adviser and former China director on the U.S. National Security Council, shares her insights on the escalating tensions between the U.S. and China over tech. She discusses the potential impacts of China’s restrictions on rare earth exports, crucial for high-tech industries. Tobin highlights the strategic leverage China may be using in trade talks and contrasts U.S. and Chinese strengths in technology. She also addresses the political implications of U.S. dependence on mineral resources and what a potential Xi-Trump meeting could mean for future relations.
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Relationship On A Knife's Edge
- The U.S.-China relationship sits on a knife's edge with many possible outcomes, from tacit capitulation to renewed decoupling.
- Liza Tobin sees the next weeks as pivotal and expects ebb and flow between escalation and de-escalation.
Rules Designed To Reach Worldwide
- China's MOFCOM rules aim to apply extraterritorially, forcing export licenses when Chinese rare earth content exists anywhere.
- Tobin says the regulations are politically driven and part of a multi-year strategy to mirror and counter U.S. export controls.
Concessions Invite Bigger Demands
- Beijing is using trade talks to push the U.S. to lift a wide range of trade and national-security restrictions.
- Tobin warns each U.S. concession encourages China to press for more concessions across chips, tooling, and investment rules.
