Prof G Markets The Sell America Thesis — ft. JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest
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May 8, 2025 
Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for JPMorgan Asset & Wealth Management, shares insights on macroeconomic trends affecting investments. He discusses the risk of stagflation and provides strategies for navigating market volatility. The conversation also highlights the shift of investments overseas amid U.S. equity overvaluation and critiques recent tariffs impacting the film industry. Cembalest remains cautiously optimistic about market normalization, emphasizing the need for adaptive investment approaches in evolving conditions.
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Problems with Film Tariffs
- Trump's 100% tariff on foreign films aims to keep production in the U.S. but ignores why production moved overseas.
- Tariffs raise production costs and likely increase consumer prices, hurting viewers and smaller producers.
U.S. Capital Inflows Are Massive
- U.S. has attracted massive foreign capital inflows, resulting in record liabilities.
- Even small outflows or shifts can disrupt global financial balance and change U.S. market dynamics.
Tariff Policies Lack Cohesion
- Current tariff policies are inconsistent and could harm the U.S. economy by increasing costs.
- Policies like the 100% movie tariff signal divided priorities and complexity in administration's trade approach.