Capital Allocators – Inside the Institutional Investment Industry Josh Wolfe & Brett McGurk – Venture, Geopolitics, and the Next Frontier (EP.476)
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Dec 8, 2025 
Josh Wolfe, co-founder of Lux Capital and expert in AI, biotech, and defense, teams up with Brett McGurk, former U.S. national security advisor, to explore the intersection of venture capital and geopolitics. They discuss the evolving venture landscape, emphasizing the divide between small funds and mega firms. Brett shares insights from his time in public service, highlighting geopolitical risks like AI militarization and nuclear threats. Together, they delve into the future of technology, including maintenance opportunities and the potential of biology and robotics.
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Venture Bifurcation: Minnows Versus Megas
- Venture has bifurcated into many subscale "minnows" and a few dominant "megas" controlling later-stage capital.
- Josh warns most small funds are under-reserved and many will involuntarily exit as follow-on capital dries up.
Be The First Institutional Check
- Be the first institutional investor and take early risk to create later-stage optionality and higher valuations.
- Hire and back young technical talent to be founding investors in the next wave of startups.
Comp Structure Drives Sourcing Advantage
- Structure compensation to reward sourcing, deal-winning, and firm-building activities.
- Keep the organization flat and prize unique contributions from each partner.