Episode 121: Dr. Bilyana Lilly on Russian Information Warfare and Navigating Future Risks
Sep 4, 2024
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Dr. Bilyana Lilly, an authority on Russian information warfare and geopolitical risk, shares her transformative journey from Bulgaria to a pivotal role in foreign policy. She dives into the intricacies of Russian election interference and modern warfare tactics, offering insights from attending a Russian military conference. The conversation highlights the dangers of misinformation in electoral processes and its implications for U.S. security, especially leading up to the 2024 elections. Bilyana emphasizes the importance of understanding information warfare through literature and popular culture.
Dr. Bilyana Lilly's journey from humanitarian work in Bulgaria to becoming a leading expert on Russian information warfare exemplifies her commitment to understanding global geopolitical dynamics.
Her insights into Russia's cyber and psychological operations during conflicts, particularly in Ukraine, highlight the evolving nature of modern warfare and the strategies employed to disrupt adversaries.
As the U.S. election cycle approaches, concerns about Russian influence operations emphasize the need for vigilance against disinformation and the protection of democratic institutions.
Deep dives
Origin Story and Early Influences
The guest shares her background as a native of Ruse, Bulgaria, where she was actively involved in various pursuits such as painting, martial arts, and humanitarian work with the Red Cross from a young age. These experiences fostered a curiosity about the world beyond her small town and led her to international summer camps and competitions, allowing her to connect with diverse cultures. Despite financial constraints preventing her from pursuing architecture, her dedication to education and foreign policy propelled her to an international school in Germany, where she earned a scholarship. This marked the beginning of her academic journey that would eventually lead to a focus on conflict and international humanitarian law.
Impact of Kosovo Experience
A transformative summer spent in Kosovo heightened the guest's interest in foreign policy and international law, exposing her to the complexities of conflict just after the war. Under the tutelage of an American lawyer representing Saddam Hussein, she grappled with ethical considerations around legal representation amidst a backdrop of destruction and humanitarian crisis. This experience solidified her aspiration to work for the United Nations, spurring her to pursue further studies in Geneva and later at Oxford, where she deepened her understanding of global politics. The stark realities she witnessed in Kosovo greatly influenced her perspective on international relations and the need for effective governance.
Recognition of Information Warfare
The guest's academic focus on Russian interference, particularly during the 2016 U.S. elections, highlighted the evolving nature of modern warfare, which increasingly prioritizes cyber and psychological operations. Analyzing the infamous hack of the Democratic National Committee, she criticized media narratives that deemed it unprecedented, asserting that similar tactics had long been employed by Russia against other nations. Her research culminated in a PhD thesis at the Rand Corporation, where she examined the Russian government's playbook for disinformation and cyberattacks, which included cases of assassination and meddling in foreign elections. This work not only illuminated the scale of Russia's operations but also laid the foundation for understanding how to better mitigate future threats.
Current Trends in Cyber Operations
The ongoing war in Ukraine has seen Russia utilizing cyber operations to complement conventional warfare, aiming to disrupt communication systems and civilian infrastructure. Initial cyber assaults aimed to incapacitate Ukraine's capabilities prior to military action, with concerted efforts to launch DDoS attacks on critical systems. However, the effectiveness of these cyber operations has been called into question, as conventional strikes have often proved more advantageous for immediate impact. The guest speculates that Russia may choose to hold back its more sophisticated cyber tactics for strategic deployment when the timing aligns more favorably with their overall military objectives.
Implications for Future U.S. Elections and Disinformation
As the U.S. approaches its next election cycle, concerns grow about potential Russian influence operations aimed at undermining trust in the electoral process. The guest notes that previous misinformation campaigns have focused on eroding confidence in democratic institutions, which could exacerbate national divisions during the elections. She warns that the tactics could evolve, with Russia leveraging psychological warfare through targeted cyber operations paired with disinformation to manipulate public perception. Future strategies may include funding legitimate voices to amplify narratives that align with Russian interests, emphasizing the need for vigilance in safeguarding the integrity of democratic discourse.
In this OODAcast, Matt interviews Dr. Bilyana Lilly who is an expert on Russian information warfare and geo-political risk. Bilyana is also the author of the book Russian Information Warfare and the novel Digital Mindhunters.
Dr. Lilly shares her fascinating origin story and how she emerged as one of the premiere experts on Russian information warfare and geopolitical dynamics. Bilyana has worked tracking international arms and weapons supply chains, conflict zones, and other geo-political dynamics in academia, the private sector, and at internationally renowned think tanks. She shares fascinating insights from her time attending a Russian military conference with top leaders, her activities tracking information warfare and influence campaigns and then the conversation shifts to current geo-political risks including the conflict in Ukraine and what we can expect by way of targeting during the upcoming US election cycle.
Official Bio:
Dr. Bilyana Lilly is the chair of the cyber track at the Warsaw Security Forum and an adjunct researcher at the RAND Corporation. Dr. Lilly helps clients to detect and respond to ransomware threats and information warfare activities. Bilyana led a team that developed a threat-based risk assessment framework to prioritize vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure which the U.S. Department of Homeland Security now uses in all 50 states. She is a speaker at DefCon, CyCon, Executive Women's Forum, and the author of two books and a dozen publications, translated in Russian and Chinese. Dr. Lilly has been cited in the Wall Street Journal, Foreign Policy, and ZDNet. She has been denounced by Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Lilly has a Ph.D. from Pardee RAND Graduate School, and master’s degrees from Oxford University (distinction) in England and the Graduate Institute in Switzerland.