The podcast discusses the current Russo-Ukrainian conflict, including the situation on the front lines, naval developments in the Black Sea, Russia's diplomacy, and Ukraine's offensive. It explores the changing military capabilities, Ukraine's impact on the Black Sea and shipping, Russia's naval warfare, and the need for unity of effort in approaching the war.
Ukraine's fires advantage is crucial for attritioning Russian forces and enabling successful offensive operations.
Training and scalability are crucial to maximize the impact of increased artillery firepower and increase the likelihood of successful offensive campaigns.
Deep dives
Lack of Fires Advantage: Ukraine needs a decisive fires advantage to attrition Russian forces and enable maneuver. The fires advantage should include quantity of artillery, drones, and long-range precision strike capabilities.
The Russian fires advantage in the war in Ukraine has become significant with an estimated 5 to 1 ratio on the front line. Ukraine's ability to acquire artillery ammunition has been strained, while Russia has recovered artillery production and has obtained ammunition from places like North Korea. Increasing Ukraine's fires advantage is crucial for attritioning Russian forces and enabling successful offensive operations.
Training and Scalability: Ukrainian forces need to scale offensive operations and improve training to effectively exploit a fires advantage. Operating at a rate of two reinforced companies per brigade is insufficient.
Ukraine must focus on training its forces to operate at a greater scale in offensive operations to effectively exploit a fires advantage. The current rate of two reinforced companies per brigade is inadequate. Training and scalability are crucial to maximize the impact of increased artillery firepower and increase the likelihood of successful offensive campaigns.
Enablers and Technological Adaptation: Ukraine needs the right enablers to support offensive operations. The enablers must be based on lessons learned from the 2023 offensive and be adaptable to rapidly evolving technological innovations.
Effectively supporting offensive operations requires the right enablers, such as adequate air defense systems, breaching equipment, and countermeasures against unmanned aerial systems. These enablers must address the evolving challenges of the battlefield, such as the increased use of first-person view strike drones. Lessons learned from previous offensives and rapid adaptation to technological changes are crucial for successful offensive operations.
Nick sat down with Mike Kofman to discuss where the Russo-Ukrainian conflict stands at the start of 2024. They talked through the situation on the front lines, naval developments in the Black Sea and Russia’s cynical diplomacy, as well as Moscow’s growing munitions advantage and what went wrong with the Ukrainian offensive.
Don't forget to listen to "All Quiet on the Second Front," an amazing new show that supported this episode to receive a promo code for a limited number of free War on the Rocks memberships.
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