Doug Irwin, a trade policy expert from Dartmouth, discusses how recent tariffs could reset global trade, with potential for higher U.S. prices and recession. Ed Yardeni, market analyst, highlights increased financial risk and a bearish outlook on the S&P amid market selloff. Elizabeth Economy from Stanford reveals how China's strategic responses to U.S. tariffs could shift geopolitical dynamics. The conversation explores the implications of America’s isolationist policies and the rising competition in global trade.
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insights INSIGHT
Tariffs and History Repeating
Trump's tariff increases are reminiscent of the late 19th century, raising the average tariff on imports to 30%.
This historically unprecedented increase, similar to the McKinley Tariff, could negatively impact the economy and voter sentiment.
insights INSIGHT
Automation vs. Offshoring
Many manufacturing job losses are due to automation, not offshoring.
Bringing back factories may not bring back jobs, as automation has transformed industries like steel production.
insights INSIGHT
Tariff Reversal Challenges
Reversing tariffs is a slow process due to vested interests and government dependence on revenue.
This creates difficulty in mitigating the economic damage quickly.
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In 'The Third Revolution: A Study of Psychiatry and Religion', Karl Stern delves into the relationship between psychiatric practices and religious beliefs. The book reflects Stern's unique perspective as a convert from Judaism to Roman Catholicism and his extensive experience in psychiatric research. It examines how these two fields interact and influence each other, providing insights into the psychological and spiritual dimensions of human experience.
Clashing over Commerce
Douglas Irwin
Against the tide
Peter Yeldham
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 3rd, 2025 Featuring: 1) Doug Irwin, professor at Dartmouth University, on the reset of the global trade order and whether countries will just move on without the US. The tariffs are expected to have significant economic implications, including higher US prices, slower growth, and possibly even a recession, with many countries likely to end up in a recession if the tariff rate stays on for an extended period of time. Ed Yardeni, president at Yardeni Research, talks about lowering his S&P target yet again and whether there's more even more market risks now that tariffs have been announced. Global financial markets experienced a sweeping selloff after President Trump's bid to remake the world trading order proved more aggressive than expected. The tariff announcements threaten to extend the S&P 500's recent weakness. 2) Bob Michele, CIO: Fixed Income at JPMorgan Asset Management, on signals from the bond market in the US and whether a recession is now likely. Gold hit new highs amid investors’ flight to haven assets on the tariff announcement, while 10-year Treasury yields dropped to the lowest level in more than five months and the yen strengthened. 3) Tina Fordham, founder at Fordham Global Foresight, discusses President's Trump's geopolitical reset and America "going it alone." President Trump's move marks a dramatic escalation in Trump's trade war, sparking threats of retaliation from other countries and causing a selloff in global financial markets. 4) Elizabeth Economy, professor at Stanford University, talks about China getting hit hard by Trump's tariffs and whether they affect China's geopolitical strategy is being reshaped by Trump's approach. China has vowed to retaliate against Donald Trump's tariffs, which have increased by 34%, putting the world's largest economies on a collision course that risks decimating bilateral trade and upending supply chains.
Bloomberg Surveillance 
