Rep. French Hill discusses GOP losing their way tactically. Gene Tannuzzo warns of a steepening that should concern investors. Andrew Hollenhorst explains the Fed's intentions with higher 10-year yields. Chris Marinac doesn't expect big bank failures. Jennifer Flitton suggests a government shutdown is possible on Nov 17th.
The Republican Party has lost their way tactically and needs to find common ground to reach a resolution.
A government shutdown is likely due to the division within the Republican conference and lack of unity.
Deep dives
Congressman McHenry takes a stand in the face of rebellion
Congressman Patrick McHenry, chairman of the Financial Services Committee, stood firm against a small group of Republican members who sought to unseat Speaker Kevin McCarthy. While this rebellion represented a minority within the party, it highlighted a different thinking that emerged in the Republican Party after the election of Donald Trump.
Frustration and distrust in the system
The frustration and distrust in Washington reflected by the rebellion stems from a larger frustration among voters. This frustration is fueled by concerns over the national debt and a lack of trust in the government. Congressman Matt Gaetz has sought to lead this movement of discontent, but whether he is the right voice for the cause remains to be seen.
Bridging the gap in negotiations
As negotiations continue for appropriations, bridging the gap between the frustrations and inefficiencies of the system will be crucial. The next speaker will need to find common ground to reach a resolution, especially as the November 17th deadline for appropriations approaches. The outcome remains uncertain, but the need for unity among Republicans is evident.
Concerns over a government shutdown
The events of last night and the current division within the Republican conference raise concerns about the likelihood of a government shutdown. The new speaker will face challenges in working with the Senate, which has a bipartisan stance on appropriations. Without unity and cooperation, a government shutdown is a probable outcome in the near term.
Rep. French Hill, (R) Arkansas, says GOP principals remain intact but the party has lost their way tactically as Kevin McCarthy was ousted as House Speaker. Gene Tannuzzo, Columbia Threadneedle Global Head of Fixed Income, says we have seen a steepening that should give investors pause. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief US Economist, says the fact that 10-year yields are higher is probably consistent with what the Fed is trying to achieve. Chris Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott Director of Research, doesn't expect any big bank failures to happen this year. Jennifer Flitton, Invesco Head of US Government Affairs, says a US government shutdown on November 17th is possible. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance