Elbows Up: Fidelity's Strategic Pivot Amid US Policy Uncertainty | Ilan Kolet

Summary

In this timely episode of Insight is Capital, Pierre sits down with Ilan Kolet, Institutional Portfolio Manager at Fidelity Investments, to unpack Fidelity’s latest macro outlook and strategic asset allocation decisions—just as the world braces for another wave of geopolitical and trade disruption.

Drawing from Fidelity’s latest research piece titled "Elbows Up", Kolet shares why his team is dialing back US equity exposure and tactically reallocating toward Europe. The conversation delves into the erosion of US institutional strength, rising stagflation risk, and the immense threat posed by potential tariffs on Canadian exports. Investors and advisors alike will find invaluable insights into positioning portfolios for resilience in a world increasingly defined by fragmentation and volatility.

Kolet’s clarity and candor shine through as he outlines how Fidelity is protecting investors from mounting uncertainty—without overreacting to short-term noise.

3 Key Takeaways:

Chapters

00:00 – Intro: Why One Fire Tanked Industrial Production 01:05 – Today's Geopolitical Crossroads 02:44 – From US Exceptionalism to Strategic Repositioning 06:15 – Signs of Stagflation & Why Fidelity Bought Gold 09:04 – The Undermining of Institutional Strength in the US 12:41 – Valuations vs. Catalysts: Europe’s Turn to Shine 18:25 – Caution on Canada: Debt, Rates, and Tariff Fallout 22:29 – How Tariffs Could Hammer the Canadian Economy 30:03 – Who Really Pays for Tariffs? A Case Study in Washing Machines 36:57 – Manufacturing, Inflation, and Hollowed-Out Labor 39:37 – Supply Chain Disruptions & Auto Sector Insights 44:40 – Tactical Shifts: Gold, TIPS, and Currency Hedging 48:32 – Wrapping Up: Managing Through Uncertainty

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